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Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2022 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (LB)
CM
Chad Muma
LB · Wyoming
22.7 yo · 6'3" · 239 lb
DB
Darrian Beavers
LB · Cincinnati
22.8 yo · 6'4" · 237 lb
DC
Damone Clark
LB · LSU
21.8 yo · 6'3" · 239 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Chad Muma
Predicted pick
#53
range #31–#90
Bust probability
20%
Consensus rank
#54
on 25 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Darrian Beavers
Predicted pick
#138
range #58–#246
Bust probability
10%
Consensus rank
#66
on 7 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Damone Clark
Predicted pick
#89
range #45–#201
Bust probability
23%
Consensus rank
#89
on 6 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Chad Muma· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Darrian Beavers· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Damone Clark· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionChad Muma100
  • AthleticismDamone Clark72
  • AgeDamone Clark94
  • ConsensusChad Muma41
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Chad Muma50
  • Breakout ageChad Muma50
  • WorkloadChad Muma100
  • RAS × productionDamone Clark100

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Chad Muma
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Darrian Beavers
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Damone Clark
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Chad Muma
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Darrian Beavers
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Damone Clark
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Chad MumaDarrian BeaversDamone Clark· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Chad Muma

+0.05 boards with him top-100; +0.03 boards with him top-50; +0.02 charting def grade

Darrian Beavers

−0.03 production trajectory; +0.03 charting pass rush seasons n; −0.03 charting yards per coverage snap career avg

Damone Clark

−0.05 production trajectory; +0.03 age; −0.02 boards with him top-100