3 prospects · 2022 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Abraham Lucas as a Day 2 pick at #42 (range #31-#53, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Matt Hennessy (Contributor), Ben Bartch (Contributor), Logan Stenberg (Bust). Ceiling is John Simpson (Franchise); floor is Charlie Heck (Contributor). 1 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Logan Stenberg. Mixed signal from history. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 35 spots ahead of the room (board #42 vs consensus #77), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Luke Goedeke as a Day 2 pick at #47 (range #22-#72, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Logan Stenberg (Bust), Hakeem Adeniji (Contributor), Ben Bartch (Contributor). Ceiling is Josh Jones (Starter); floor is Hakeem Adeniji (Contributor). 1 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Logan Stenberg. Mixed signal from history. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 32 spots ahead of the room (board #47 vs consensus #79), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Chris Paul as a mid-round flyer at #108 (range #88-#128, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Matt Hennessy (Contributor), Keith Ismael (Contributor), Ben Bartch (Contributor). Ceiling is Matt Hennessy (Contributor); floor is Nick Harris (Contributor). School SP+ 5.8 (AMERICAN ATHLETIC). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #108 sits within 4 spots of the room's #104 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.