3 prospects · 2022 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Channing Tindall (age 22.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #109 (range #75-#143, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 27% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Carter Coughlin (Bust), Cam Brown (Bust), Malik Harrison (Contributor). Ceiling is Terrell Lewis (Contributor); floor is Khaleke Hudson (Contributor). 2 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Carter Coughlin, Cam Brown. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 23 spots below the room's consensus #86 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Quay Walker (age 22.0 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #71 (range #53-#89, wide band). Bust probability sits at 20% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Christian Miller (Bust), Shaun Dion Hamilton (Contributor), D'Andre Walker (Bust). Ceiling is Shaun Dion Hamilton (Contributor); floor is D'Andre Walker (Bust). 4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Christian Miller, D'Andre Walker, Cameron Smith (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 15 spots below the room's consensus #56 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Baylon Spector (age 23.5 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #156 (range #126-#186, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Ryan Connelly (Bust), Jordan Glasgow (Bust), Dakota Allen (Bust). Ceiling is Troy Dye (Contributor); floor is Deshaun Davis. 3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Ryan Connelly, Jordan Glasgow, Dakota Allen. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 197 spots ahead of the room (board #156 vs consensus #353), and at a 6% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.