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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2022 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (OL, TE)
ZT
Zach Tom
OL · Wake Forest
— · — · —
TQ
Teagan Quitoriano
TE · Oregon St.
22.1 yo · 6'6" · 258 lb
DD
Dawson Deaton
OL · Texas Tech
— · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Zach Tom
Predicted pick
#40
range #16–#64
Bust probability· rough estimate
6%
0%comp-based · 0/3
Consensus rank
#135
on 6 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$18Mmodel
Teagan Quitoriano
Predicted pick
#237
range #204–#270
Bust probability
21%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$6Mmodel
Dawson Deaton
Predicted pick
#88
range #56–#120
Bust probability· rough estimate
8%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$9Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Zach Tom· Offensive line
  • Teagan Quitoriano· RB / WR / TE
  • Dawson Deaton· Offensive line
Axis leaders
  • ProductionZach Tom50
  • AthleticismTeagan Quitoriano90
  • AgeZach Tom92
  • ConsensusDawson Deaton12
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Zach Tom50
  • Breakout ageZach Tom50
  • WorkloadTeagan Quitoriano56
  • RAS × productionDawson Deaton76

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Zach Tom
  • Jermaine Eluemunor
    G · #159
    TBD
  • Tyler Biadasz
    C · #146
    Franchise
  • Jack Driscoll
    G · #145
    Contributor
  • Nico Siragusa
    G · #122
    TBD
  • Ezra Cleveland
    OT · #58
    Franchise
Teagan Quitoriano
  • Jordan Thomas
    TE · #211
    Contributor
  • Eric Saubert
    TE · #174
    Bust
  • Chris Herndon
    TE · #107
    Starter
  • Caleb Wilson
    TE · #254
    Bust
  • Tyler Conklin
    TE · #157
    Starter
Dawson Deaton
  • Kofi Amichia
    C · #212
    TBD
  • Justin Skule
    OT · #183
    Contributor
  • George Asafo-Adjei
    OT · #232
    TBD
  • JJ Dielman
    C · #176
    TBD
  • Joseph Noteboom
    OT · #89
    Contributor

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Zach Tom
Risks
  • Consensus skeptic
    7 boards place him at mean rank #94; model has him #40 — a 54-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
  • Strong comp group
    2 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Tyler Biadasz, Ezra Cleveland. The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.
Teagan Quitoriano
Risks
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #312; model has him #237 — a 75-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
  • Comp group has bust risk
    2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Eric Saubert, Caleb Wilson. Mixed signal from history.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Dawson Deaton
Risks
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #248; model has him #88 — a 160-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Zach TomTeagan QuitorianoDawson Deaton· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Zach Tom

Draftanomics projects Zach Tom as a Day 2 pick at #40 (range #16-#64, wide band). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jermaine Eluemunor, Tyler Biadasz (Franchise), Jack Driscoll (Contributor). Ceiling is Ezra Cleveland (Franchise); floor is Jermaine Eluemunor. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 54 spots ahead of the room (board #40 vs consensus #94), and at a 6% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

Teagan Quitoriano

Draftanomics projects Teagan Quitoriano (age 22.1 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #237 (range #204-#270, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 21% — manageable. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Jordan Thomas (Contributor), Eric Saubert (Bust), Chris Herndon (Starter). Ceiling is Chris Herndon (Starter); floor is Jordan Thomas (Contributor). 2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Eric Saubert, Caleb Wilson. Mixed signal from history. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 75 spots ahead of the room (board #237 vs consensus #312), and at a 21% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

Dawson Deaton

Draftanomics projects Dawson Deaton as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #88 (range #56-#120, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 8% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Kofi Amichia, Justin Skule (Contributor), George Asafo-Adjei. Ceiling is Joseph Noteboom (Contributor); floor is George Asafo-Adjei. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 160 spots ahead of the room (board #88 vs consensus #248), and at a 8% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.