3 prospects · 2022 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Danny Gray (age 23.1 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #214 (range #170-#258, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 4% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jauan Jennings (Contributor), Brandon Aiyuk (Franchise), Van Jefferson (Starter). Ceiling is Brandon Aiyuk (Franchise); floor is Jauan Jennings (Contributor). Age 23.1 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #121 and the model won't take him before #214 — a 93-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Kyle Philips (age 22.9 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #213 (range #202-#224, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 22% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Isaiah Coulter (Bust), Shelton Gibson (Bust), Quintez Cephus (Contributor). Ceiling is Quintez Cephus (Contributor); floor is Damion Ratley (Backup). 4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Isaiah Coulter, Shelton Gibson, Josh Malone (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #97 and the model won't take him before #213 — a 116-spot markdown. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Jalen Nailor (age 23.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #221 (range #199-#243, wide band). Bust probability sits at 28% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Jaleel Scott (Bust), J'Mon Moore (Bust), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Starter). Ceiling is Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Starter); floor is Marcus Green. Career trajectory in receiving yards: 106 → 515 → 695. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Jaleel Scott, J'Mon Moore, Dezmon Patmon. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a value lean: #221 against a consensus #237 is a 16-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with older prospect the tax on that edge.