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RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2022 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (DT)
KD
Kalia Davis
DT · Central Florida
23.6 yo · 6'1" · 302 lb
DD
DJ Davidson
DT · Arizona St.
24.6 yo · 6'3" · 327 lb
EO
Esezi Otomewo
DT · Minnesota
23.1 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Kalia Davis
Predicted pick
#216
range #189–#243
Bust probability
65%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#64
on 1 board
Career arc
Contributor
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
DJ Davidson
Predicted pick
#225
range #182–#268
Bust probability
4%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Esezi Otomewo
Predicted pick
#155
range #128–#182
Bust probability
4%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Contributor
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Kalia Davis· EDGE / DL / LB
  • DJ Davidson· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Esezi Otomewo· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionKalia Davis100
  • AthleticismDJ Davidson41
  • AgeKalia Davis42
  • ConsensusKalia Davis29
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Kalia Davis50
  • Breakout ageKalia Davis50
  • WorkloadKalia Davis100
  • RAS × productionKalia Davis0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Broderick Washington Jr.DT · Contributor→ shared byKalia DavisDJ DavidsonEsezi Otomewo
  • John PenisiniDT · Contributor→ shared byKalia DavisEsezi Otomewo
Kalia Davis
  • John Penisinishared
    DT · #197
    Contributor
  • Deadrin Senat
    DT · #90
    Contributor
  • Broderick Washington Jr.shared
    DT · #170
    Contributor
  • Tim Settle
    DT · #163
    Contributor
  • Nazair Jones
    DT · #102
    Bust
DJ Davidson
  • Treyvon Hester
    DT · #244
    Bust
  • Broderick Washington Jr.shared
    DT · #170
    Contributor
  • Carlos Davis
    DT · #232
    Bust
  • Nathan Shepherd
    DT · #72
    Contributor
  • Renell Wren
    DT · #125
    Bust
Esezi Otomewo
  • Broderick Washington Jr.shared
    DT · #170
    Contributor
  • Chris Slayton
    DT · #245
    Bust
  • Ryan Glasgow
    DT · #138
    Bust
  • Greg Gaines
    DT · #134
    Starter
  • John Penisinishared
    DT · #197
    Contributor

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Kalia Davis
Risks
  • Missed entire rookie season
    Drafted #220 by SFO in 2022 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have.
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.6 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • Athletic profile below NFL threshold
    RAS 2.03 (20th percentile vs DT prospects in a 321-yr Combine population). Below the 30th-percentile bar that most NFL starters clear.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    2 boards have him at mean rank #154; model has him #216 — a 62-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
DJ Davidson
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 24.6 at draft. Players entering the league past 24 hit fewer career milestones — the developmental window is already compressed before they take an NFL snap.
  • Average-to-below athletic profile
    RAS 4.10 (41th percentile at DT). Athleticism is average at best for the position.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #278; model has him #225 — a 53-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Esezi Otomewo
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.1 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • Average-to-below athletic profile
    RAS 4.98 (49th percentile at DT). Athleticism is average at best for the position.
  • Comp group bust rate
    2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Chris Slayton, Ryan Glasgow. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Kalia DavisDJ DavidsonEsezi Otomewo· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Kalia Davis

Draftanomics projects Kalia Davis (age 23.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #216 (range #189-#243, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: John Penisini (Contributor), Deadrin Senat (Contributor), Broderick Washington Jr. (Contributor). Ceiling is Deadrin Senat (Contributor); floor is John Penisini (Contributor). Drafted #220 by SFO in 2022 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #154 and the model won't take him before #216 — a 62-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.

DJ Davidson

Draftanomics projects DJ Davidson (age 24.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #225 (range #182-#268, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 4% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Treyvon Hester (Bust), Broderick Washington Jr. (Contributor), Carlos Davis (Bust). Ceiling is Nathan Shepherd (Contributor); floor is Broderick Washington Jr. (Contributor). Age 24.6 at draft. Players entering the league past 24 hit fewer career milestones — the developmental window is already compressed before they take an NFL snap. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 53 spots ahead of the room (board #225 vs consensus #278), and at a 4% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

Esezi Otomewo

Draftanomics projects Esezi Otomewo (age 23.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #155 (range #128-#182, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 4% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Broderick Washington Jr. (Contributor), Chris Slayton (Bust), Ryan Glasgow (Bust). Ceiling is Greg Gaines (Starter); floor is John Penisini (Contributor). 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Chris Slayton, Ryan Glasgow. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a value lean: #155 against a consensus #178 is a 23-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with older prospect the tax on that edge.