3 prospects · 2022 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Kalia Davis (age 23.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #216 (range #189-#243, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: John Penisini (Contributor), Deadrin Senat (Contributor), Broderick Washington Jr. (Contributor). Ceiling is Deadrin Senat (Contributor); floor is John Penisini (Contributor). Drafted #220 by SFO in 2022 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #154 and the model won't take him before #216 — a 62-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Matthew Butler (age 22.9 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #206 (range #168-#244, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 24% — manageable. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Kingsley Keke (Contributor), Greg Gaines (Starter), Nnamdi Madubuike (Starter). Ceiling is Nnamdi Madubuike (Starter); floor is Kingsley Keke (Contributor). 2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Davon Godchaux, Chris Slayton. Mixed signal from history. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #112 and the model won't take him before #206 — a 94-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group has bust risk leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Esezi Otomewo (age 23.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #155 (range #128-#182, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 4% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Broderick Washington Jr. (Contributor), Chris Slayton (Bust), Ryan Glasgow (Bust). Ceiling is Greg Gaines (Starter); floor is John Penisini (Contributor). 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Chris Slayton, Ryan Glasgow. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a value lean: #155 against a consensus #178 is a 23-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with older prospect the tax on that edge.