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Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2022 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (CB)
TC
Tariq Castro-Fields
CB · Penn St.
23.3 yo · 6'1" · 197 lb
DM
Damarri Mathis
CB · Pittsburgh
23.0 yo · 5'11" · 196 lb
AT
Alontae Taylor
CB · Tennessee
23.4 yo · 6'0" · 199 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Tariq Castro-Fields
Predicted pick
#241
range #223–#259
Bust probability· rough estimate
19%
0%comp-based · 0/5
Consensus rank
#52
on 1 board
Career arc
Contributor
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Damarri Mathis
Predicted pick
#187
range #169–#205
Bust probability· rough estimate
19%
0%comp-based · 0/5
Consensus rank
#87
on 3 boards
Career arc
Contributor
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Alontae Taylor
Predicted pick
#164
range #127–#201
Bust probability· rough estimate
6%
0%comp-based · 0/5
Consensus rank
#118
on 11 boards
Career arc
Contributor
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$15Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Tariq Castro-Fields· CB / S
  • Damarri Mathis· CB / S
  • Alontae Taylor· CB / S
Axis leaders
  • ProductionTariq Castro-Fields45
  • AthleticismTariq Castro-Fields70
  • AgeDamarri Mathis37
  • ConsensusAlontae Taylor30
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Tariq Castro-Fields50
  • Breakout ageTariq Castro-Fields50
  • WorkloadTariq Castro-Fields100
  • RAS × productionAlontae Taylor65

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Reggie Robinson IICB · Bust→ shared byTariq Castro-FieldsDamarri MathisAlontae Taylor
  • Troy Pride Jr.CB · Contributor→ shared byTariq Castro-FieldsDamarri MathisAlontae Taylor
  • Michael OjemudiaCB · Contributor→ shared byTariq Castro-FieldsDamarri MathisAlontae Taylor
  • Darnay HolmesCB · Contributor→ shared byTariq Castro-FieldsDamarri MathisAlontae Taylor
  • Kindle VildorCB · Contributor→ shared byTariq Castro-FieldsDamarri Mathis
Tariq Castro-Fields
  • Reggie Robinson IIshared
    CB · #123
    Bust
  • Troy Pride Jr.shared
    CB · #113
    Contributor
  • Michael Ojemudiashared
    CB · #77
    Contributor
  • Darnay Holmesshared
    CB · #110
    Contributor
  • Kindle Vildorshared
    CB · #163
    Contributor
Damarri Mathis
  • Michael Ojemudiashared
    CB · #77
    Contributor
  • Reggie Robinson IIshared
    CB · #123
    Bust
  • Troy Pride Jr.shared
    CB · #113
    Contributor
  • Darnay Holmesshared
    CB · #110
    Contributor
  • Kindle Vildorshared
    CB · #163
    Contributor
Alontae Taylor
  • Troy Pride Jr.shared
    CB · #113
    Contributor
  • Reggie Robinson IIshared
    CB · #123
    Bust
  • Michael Ojemudiashared
    CB · #77
    Contributor
  • Darnay Holmesshared
    CB · #110
    Contributor
  • Dane Jackson
    CB · #239
    Starter

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Tariq Castro-Fields
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.3 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    2 boards have him at mean rank #103; model has him #241 — a 138-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
  • Above-average athletic profile
    RAS 8.01 (80th percentile at CB). Athletic tools that translate cleanly to the NFL.
Damarri Mathis
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.0 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    4 boards have him at mean rank #96; model has him #187 — a 92-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
Alontae Taylor
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.4 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • Comp group has bust risk
    1 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Reggie Robinson II. Mixed signal from history.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    12 boards have him at mean rank #87; model has him #164 — a 77-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Tariq Castro-FieldsDamarri MathisAlontae Taylor· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Tariq Castro-Fields

Draftanomics projects Tariq Castro-Fields (age 23.3 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #241 (range #223-#259, wide band). Bust probability sits at 19% — manageable. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Reggie Robinson II (Bust), Troy Pride Jr. (Contributor), Michael Ojemudia (Contributor). Ceiling is Michael Ojemudia (Contributor); floor is Kindle Vildor (Contributor). RAS 8.01 (80th percentile at CB). Athletic tools that translate cleanly to the NFL. Age 23.3 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #103 and the model won't take him before #241 — a 138-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.

Damarri Mathis

Draftanomics projects Damarri Mathis (age 23.0 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #187 (range #169-#205, wide band). Bust probability sits at 19% — manageable. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Michael Ojemudia (Contributor), Reggie Robinson II (Bust), Troy Pride Jr. (Contributor). Ceiling is Michael Ojemudia (Contributor); floor is Kindle Vildor (Contributor). Age 23.0 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #96 and the model won't take him before #187 — a 92-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.

Alontae Taylor

Draftanomics projects Alontae Taylor (age 23.4 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #164 (range #127-#201, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Troy Pride Jr. (Contributor), Reggie Robinson II (Bust), Michael Ojemudia (Contributor). Ceiling is Dane Jackson (Starter); floor is Troy Pride Jr. (Contributor). Age 23.4 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #87 and the model won't take him before #164 — a 77-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.