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Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2022 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (OL)
LG
Luke Goedeke
OL · Central Michigan
— · — · —
SB
Spencer Burford
OL · Texas-San Antonio
— · — · —
LS
Lecitus Smith
OL · Virginia Tech
— · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Luke Goedeke
Predicted pick
#47
range #11–#180
Bust probability· rough estimate
1%
Consensus rank
#96
on 10 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$18Mmodel
Spencer Burford
Predicted pick
#162
range #82–#238
Bust probability· rough estimate
8%
Consensus rank
#157
on 1 board
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Lecitus Smith
Predicted pick
#153
range #50–#198
Bust probability· rough estimate
8%
Consensus rank
#139
on 5 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Luke Goedeke· Offensive line
  • Spencer Burford· Offensive line
  • Lecitus Smith· Offensive line
Axis leaders
  • ProductionLuke Goedeke50
  • AthleticismLuke Goedeke24
  • AgeSpencer Burford60
  • ConsensusSpencer Burford21
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Luke Goedeke50
  • Breakout ageLuke Goedeke50
  • WorkloadLuke Goedeke50
  • RAS × productionLuke Goedeke0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Luke Goedeke
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Spencer Burford
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Lecitus Smith
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Luke Goedeke
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Spencer Burford
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Lecitus Smith
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Luke GoedekeSpencer BurfordLecitus Smith· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Luke Goedeke

+0.04 charting gap run block grade; +0.03 age; +0.03 boards with him top-100

Spencer Burford

−0.04 boards with him top-100; +0.03 age; −0.02 charting true-pass-set pass block grade mean

Lecitus Smith

−0.04 scout consensus; +0.03 HS recruit rating; −0.03 boards with him top-100