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RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2022 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (CB)
CD
Cobie Durant
CB · South Carolina St.
24.2 yo · 5'10" · 180 lb
TC
Tariq Carpenter
CB · Georgia Tech
23.3 yo · — · —
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take Tariq Carpenter over Cobie Durant.

Decisive factor: 44-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a bust risk 6 points lower.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Cobie Durant
Predicted pick
#215
range #198–#232
Bust probability· rough estimate
30%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel
Tariq Carpenter
Predicted pick
#171
range #134–#208
Bust probability· rough estimate
24%
0%comp-based · 0/5
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Contributor
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Cobie Durant· CB / S
  • Tariq Carpenter· CB / S
Axis leaders
  • ProductionCobie Durant45
  • AthleticismTariq Carpenter35
  • AgeTariq Carpenter35
  • ConsensusTariq Carpenter9
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Cobie Durant50
  • Breakout ageCobie Durant50
  • WorkloadCobie Durant100
  • RAS × productionCobie Durant0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Cobie Durant
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Tariq Carpenter
  • Reggie Robinson II
    CB · #123
    Bust
  • Kindle Vildor
    CB · #163
    Contributor
  • Dane Jackson
    CB · #239
    Starter
  • Darnay Holmes
    CB · #110
    Contributor
  • Michael Ojemudia
    CB · #77
    Contributor

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Cobie Durant
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 24.2 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • Average-to-below athletic profile
    RAS 4.88 (48th percentile at CB). Athleticism is average at best for the position.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #251; model has him #215 — a 36-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Tariq Carpenter
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.3 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #226; model has him #171 — a 55-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Cobie DurantTariq Carpenter· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Cobie Durant

Draftanomics projects Cobie Durant (age 24.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #215 (range #198-#232, wide band). Bust probability sits at 30% — real but not disqualifying. Age 24.2 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 36 spots ahead of the room (board #215 vs consensus #251), and at a 30% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

Tariq Carpenter

Draftanomics projects Tariq Carpenter (age 23.3 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #171 (range #134-#208, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 24% — manageable. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Reggie Robinson II (Bust), Kindle Vildor (Contributor), Dane Jackson (Starter). Ceiling is Dane Jackson (Starter); floor is Kindle Vildor (Contributor). Age 23.3 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 55 spots ahead of the room (board #171 vs consensus #226), and at a 24% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.