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RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2022 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (CB)
CD
Cobie Durant
CB · South Carolina St.
24.2 yo · 5'10" · 180 lb
CH
Christian Holmes
CB · Oklahoma St.
24.4 yo · — · —
QL
Quentin Lake
CB · UCLA
23.2 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Cobie Durant
Predicted pick
#215
range #198–#232
Bust probability· rough estimate
30%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel
Christian Holmes
Predicted pick
#261
range #231–#291
Bust probability· rough estimate
53%
0%comp-based · 0/5
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Bust
tier · PFA
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Quentin Lake
Predicted pick
#203
range #162–#244
Bust probability· rough estimate
53%
0%comp-based · 0/5
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Contributor
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$11Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Cobie Durant· CB / S
  • Christian Holmes· CB / S
  • Quentin Lake· CB / S
Axis leaders
  • ProductionCobie Durant45
  • AthleticismChristian Holmes35
  • AgeQuentin Lake41
  • ConsensusQuentin Lake11
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Cobie Durant50
  • Breakout ageCobie Durant50
  • WorkloadCobie Durant100
  • RAS × productionCobie Durant0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Brian AllenCB · Bust→ shared byChristian HolmesQuentin Lake
  • Lonnie Johnson Jr.CB · Starter→ shared byChristian HolmesQuentin Lake
Cobie Durant
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Christian Holmes
  • Ka'dar Hollman
    CB · #185
    Bust
  • Brian Allenshared
    CB · #173
    Bust
  • Damontae Kazee
    CB · #149
    Bust
  • Lonnie Johnson Jr.shared
    CB · #54
    Starter
  • John Reid
    CB · #141
    Bust
Quentin Lake
  • Davontae Harris
    CB · #151
    Contributor
  • Chris Williamson
    CB · #247
    Bust
  • Brian Allenshared
    CB · #173
    Bust
  • Dane Cruikshank
    CB · #152
    Contributor
  • Lonnie Johnson Jr.shared
    CB · #54
    Starter

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Cobie Durant
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 24.2 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • Average-to-below athletic profile
    RAS 4.88 (48th percentile at CB). Athleticism is average at best for the position.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #251; model has him #215 — a 36-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Christian Holmes
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 24.4 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Comp group bust rate
    4 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Ka'dar Hollman, Brian Allen, Damontae Kazee (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Quentin Lake
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.2 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • CB slow 40 (4.59s)
    40-yard dash of 4.59s — historically corners above 4.55s rarely become NFL starters.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #277; model has him #203 — a 74-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Cobie DurantChristian HolmesQuentin Lake· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Cobie Durant

Draftanomics projects Cobie Durant (age 24.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #215 (range #198-#232, wide band). Bust probability sits at 30% — real but not disqualifying. Age 24.2 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 36 spots ahead of the room (board #215 vs consensus #251), and at a 30% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

Christian Holmes

Draftanomics projects Christian Holmes (age 24.4 at draft) as a priority UDFA at #261 (range #231-#291, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 53% — elevated. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Ka'dar Hollman (Bust), Brian Allen (Bust), Damontae Kazee (Bust). Ceiling is Lonnie Johnson Jr. (Starter); floor is Ka'dar Hollman (Bust). 4 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Ka'dar Hollman, Brian Allen, Damontae Kazee (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #261 stands alone — and with bust risk at 53%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.

Quentin Lake

Draftanomics projects Quentin Lake (age 23.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #203 (range #162-#244, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 53% — elevated. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Davontae Harris (Contributor), Chris Williamson (Bust), Brian Allen (Bust). Ceiling is Lonnie Johnson Jr. (Starter); floor is Dane Cruikshank (Contributor). 40-yard dash of 4.59s — historically corners above 4.55s rarely become NFL starters. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 74 spots ahead of the room (board #203 vs consensus #277) — but size the bet for the 53% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.