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RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2022 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (CB)
CD
Cobie Durant
CB · South Carolina St.
24.2 yo · 5'10" · 180 lb
QL
Quentin Lake
CB · UCLA
23.2 yo · — · —
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take Quentin Lake over Cobie Durant.

Decisive factor: a bust risk 37 points lower. Reinforced by 12-pick gap on Draftanomics projection and $6M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Cobie Durant
Predicted pick
#215
range #198–#232
Bust probability· rough estimate
37%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel
Quentin Lake
Predicted pick
#203
range #162–#244
Bust probability· rough estimate
0%
0%comp-based · 0/5
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Contributor
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$11Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Cobie Durant· CB / S
  • Quentin Lake· CB / S
Axis leaders
  • ProductionCobie Durant45
  • AthleticismQuentin Lake35
  • AgeQuentin Lake41
  • ConsensusQuentin Lake11
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Cobie Durant50
  • Breakout ageCobie Durant50
  • WorkloadCobie Durant100
  • RAS × productionCobie Durant0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Cobie Durant
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Quentin Lake
  • Davontae Harris
    CB · #151
    Contributor
  • Chris Williamson
    CB · #247
    Bust
  • Brian Allen
    CB · #173
    Bust
  • Dane Cruikshank
    CB · #152
    Contributor
  • Lonnie Johnson Jr.
    CB · #54
    Starter

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Cobie Durant
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 24.2 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • Average-to-below athletic profile
    RAS 4.88 (48th percentile at CB). Athleticism is average at best for the position.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #251; model has him #215 — a 36-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Quentin Lake
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.2 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • CB slow 40 (4.59s)
    40-yard dash of 4.59s — historically corners above 4.55s rarely become NFL starters.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #277; model has him #203 — a 74-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Cobie DurantQuentin Lake· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Cobie Durant

Draftanomics projects Cobie Durant (age 24.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #215 (range #198-#232, wide band). Bust probability sits at 37% — real but not disqualifying. Age 24.2 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 36 spots ahead of the room (board #215 vs consensus #251), and at a 37% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

Quentin Lake

Draftanomics projects Quentin Lake (age 23.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #203 (range #162-#244, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Davontae Harris (Contributor), Chris Williamson (Bust), Brian Allen (Bust). Ceiling is Lonnie Johnson Jr. (Starter); floor is Dane Cruikshank (Contributor). 40-yard dash of 4.59s — historically corners above 4.55s rarely become NFL starters. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 74 spots ahead of the room (board #203 vs consensus #277), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.