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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2022 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (LB)
DH
Daniel Hardy
LB · Montana St.
23.4 yo · — · —
BS
Baylon Spector
LB · Clemson
23.5 yo · 6'0" · 233 lb
JH
James Houston
LB · Jackson St.
23.4 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Daniel Hardy
Predicted pick
#179
range #158–#200
Bust probability
25%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel
Baylon Spector
Predicted pick
#156
range #126–#186
Bust probability
6%
0%0/4 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
James Houston
Predicted pick
#182
range #153–#211
Bust probability
24%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Daniel Hardy· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Baylon Spector· EDGE / DL / LB
  • James Houston· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionDaniel Hardy100
  • AthleticismDaniel Hardy41
  • AgeJames Houston35
  • ConsensusBaylon Spector9
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Daniel Hardy50
  • Breakout ageDaniel Hardy50
  • WorkloadDaniel Hardy100
  • RAS × productionDaniel Hardy0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Ryan ConnellyLB · Bust→ shared byBaylon SpectorJames Houston
  • Dakota AllenLB · Bust→ shared byBaylon SpectorJames Houston
Daniel Hardy
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Baylon Spector
  • Ryan Connellyshared
    LB · #143
    Bust
  • Jordan Glasgow
    LB · #213
    Bust
  • Dakota Allenshared
    LB · #251
    Bust
  • Deshaun Davis
    LB · #210
    TBD
  • Troy Dye
    LB · #132
    Contributor
James Houston
  • Dakota Allenshared
    LB · #251
    Bust
  • Chapelle Russell
    LB · #241
    Bust
  • Kaden Elliss
    LB · #244
    Starter
  • Cole Holcomb
    LB · #173
    Starter
  • Ryan Connellyshared
    LB · #143
    Bust

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Daniel Hardy
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.4 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Baylon Spector
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.5 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #353; model has him #156 — a 197-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
  • Comp group bust rate
    3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Ryan Connelly, Jordan Glasgow, Dakota Allen. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
James Houston
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.4 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #284; model has him #182 — a 102-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Daniel HardyBaylon SpectorJames Houston· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Daniel Hardy

Draftanomics projects Daniel Hardy (age 23.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #179 (range #158-#200, wide band). Bust probability sits at 25% — manageable. Age 23.4 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #179 stands alone — and with bust risk at 25%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.

Baylon Spector

Draftanomics projects Baylon Spector (age 23.5 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #156 (range #126-#186, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Ryan Connelly (Bust), Jordan Glasgow (Bust), Dakota Allen (Bust). Ceiling is Troy Dye (Contributor); floor is Deshaun Davis. 3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Ryan Connelly, Jordan Glasgow, Dakota Allen. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 197 spots ahead of the room (board #156 vs consensus #353), and at a 6% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

James Houston

Draftanomics projects James Houston (age 23.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #182 (range #153-#211, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 24% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Dakota Allen (Bust), Chapelle Russell (Bust), Kaden Elliss (Starter). Ceiling is Cole Holcomb (Starter); floor is Kaden Elliss (Starter). 3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Dakota Allen, Chapelle Russell, Ryan Connelly. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 102 spots ahead of the room (board #182 vs consensus #284), and at a 24% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.