3 prospects · 2022 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Jake Ferguson (age 23.3 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #242 (range #197-#287, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Josiah Deguara (Contributor), Brycen Hopkins (Bust), Stephen Sullivan (Bust). Ceiling is Drew Sample (Starter); floor is Josiah Deguara (Contributor). Age 23.3 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #138 and the model won't take him before #242 — a 104-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Grant Calcaterra (age 23.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #257 (range #217-#297, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 32% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Josiah Deguara (Contributor), Stephen Sullivan (Bust), Brycen Hopkins (Bust). Ceiling is Adam Trautman (Starter); floor is Devin Asiasi (Backup). 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Stephen Sullivan, Brycen Hopkins, Devin Asiasi. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a value lean: #257 against a consensus #282 is a 25-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with older prospect the tax on that edge.
Draftanomics projects James Mitchell (age 22.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #233 (range #194-#272, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 12% — low. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Ryan Izzo (Contributor), Zach Gentry (Contributor), Devin Asiasi (Backup). Ceiling is Dawson Knox (Starter); floor is Devin Asiasi (Backup). RAS 2.88 (28th percentile vs TE prospects in a 276-yr Combine population). Below the 30th-percentile bar that most NFL starters clear. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #197 and the model won't take him before #233 — a 36-spot markdown. The discount is earned — athletic profile below nfl threshold leads the case against.