3 prospects · 2022 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Jake Ferguson (age 23.3 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #242 (range #197-#287, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 17% — manageable. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Josiah Deguara (Contributor), Brycen Hopkins (Bust), Stephen Sullivan (Bust). Ceiling is Drew Sample (Starter); floor is Josiah Deguara (Contributor). Age 23.3 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #138 and the model won't take him before #242 — a 104-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Daniel Bellinger (age 21.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #132 (range #123-#141, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 26% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Josiah Deguara (Contributor), Brycen Hopkins (Bust), Adam Trautman (Starter). Ceiling is Adam Trautman (Starter); floor is Harrison Bryant (Contributor). 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Brycen Hopkins, Dalton Keene. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #92 and the model won't take him before #132 — a 40-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Jeremy Ruckert (age 21.7 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #154 (range #115-#193, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 28% — manageable. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Stephen Sullivan (Bust), Alizé Mack, Dalton Schultz (Franchise). Ceiling is Dalton Schultz (Franchise); floor is Alizé Mack. 1 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Stephen Sullivan. Mixed signal from history. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #83 and the model won't take him before #154 — a 71-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group has bust risk leads the case against.