Compare prospects · Draftanomics

Isaiah Spiller

RB · Texas A&M

20.7 yo · 6'0" · 217 lb

Snoop Conner

RB · Mississippi

21.7 yo · 5'10" · 222 lb

Kyren Williams

RB · Notre Dame

21.7 yo · 5'9" · 194 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Isaiah Spiller

Predicted pick

#73

range #50–#96

Bust probability

0%0/5 comps

Consensus rank

#67

on 24 boards

Career arc

Bust

tier · Day 2

2nd-deal AAV

$4Mmodel

Snoop Conner

Predicted pick

#248

range #233–#263

Bust probability

12%

0%0/5 comps

Consensus rank

—

no boards yet

Career arc

Bust

tier · Day 3

2nd-deal AAV

$3Mmodel

Kyren Williams

Predicted pick

#143

range #131–#155

Bust probability

0%0/4 comps

Consensus rank

#111

on 6 boards

Career arc

Bust

tier · Day 3

2nd-deal AAV

$13Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

Prospects

Isaiah Spiller· RB / WR / TE
Snoop Conner· RB / WR / TE
Kyren Williams· RB / WR / TE

Axis leaders

ProductionIsaiah Spiller0
AthleticismIsaiah Spiller39
AgeKyren Williams81
ConsensusIsaiah Spiller44
Per-play impact (PPA)Isaiah Spiller50
Breakout ageIsaiah Spiller50
WorkloadIsaiah Spiller100
RAS × productionIsaiah Spiller0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps

D'Onta ForemanRB · Bust→ shared byIsaiah SpillerSnoop ConnerKyren Williams
Benny Snell Jr.RB · Contributor→ shared bySnoop ConnerKyren Williams

Isaiah Spiller

David Montgomery
RB · #73
Starter
D'Andre Swift
RB · #35
Starter
Derrius Guice
RB · #59
Bust
D'Onta Foremanshared
RB · #89
Bust
Wayne Gallman
RB · #140
Bust

Snoop Conner

Benny Snell Jr.shared
RB · #122
Contributor
Qadree Ollison
RB · #152
Bust
DeeJay Dallas
RB · #144
Bust
Ryquell Armstead
RB · #140
Bust
D'Onta Foremanshared
RB · #89
Bust

Kyren Williams

James Conner
RB · #105
Bust
Zack Moss
RB · #86
Contributor
Donnel Pumphrey
RB · #132
TBD
D'Onta Foremanshared
RB · #89
Bust
Benny Snell Jr.shared
RB · #122
Contributor

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Isaiah Spiller

Risks

Average-to-below athletic profile
RAS 4.28 (42th percentile at RB). Athleticism is average at best for the position.
Comp group bust rate
3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Derrius Guice, D'Onta Foreman, Wayne Gallman. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Negative per-play impact
PPA avg_all 0.158 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact.

Opportunities

No standout upside flags.

Snoop Conner

Risks

Average-to-below athletic profile
RAS 4.05 (40th percentile at RB). Athleticism is average at best for the position.
Comp group bust rate
4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Qadree Ollison, DeeJay Dallas, Ryquell Armstead (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Negative per-play impact
PPA avg_all 0.255 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact.

Opportunities

No standout upside flags.

Kyren Williams

Risks

Athletic profile below NFL threshold
RAS 2.03 (20th percentile vs RB prospects in a 374-yr Combine population). Below the 30th-percentile bar that most NFL starters clear.
Comp group bust rate
2 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: James Conner, D'Onta Foreman. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Negative per-play impact
PPA avg_all 0.223 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact.

Opportunities

Consensus says higher
7 boards have him at mean rank #95; model has him #143 — a 48-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
Mid-major standout
School SP+ 17.4 (FBS INDEPENDENTS). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

Isaiah SpillerSnoop ConnerKyren Williams· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Isaiah Spiller

Draftanomics projects Isaiah Spiller (age 20.7 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #73 (range #50-#96, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: David Montgomery (Starter), D'Andre Swift (Starter), Derrius Guice (Bust). Ceiling is D'Andre Swift (Starter); floor is David Montgomery (Starter). 3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Derrius Guice, D'Onta Foreman, Wayne Gallman. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #73 sits within 6 spots of the room's #67 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.

Snoop Conner

Draftanomics projects Snoop Conner (age 21.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #248 (range #233-#263, wide band). Bust probability sits at 12% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Benny Snell Jr. (Contributor), Qadree Ollison (Bust), DeeJay Dallas (Bust). Ceiling is Benny Snell Jr. (Contributor); floor is Qadree Ollison (Bust). 4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Qadree Ollison, DeeJay Dallas, Ryquell Armstead (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 20 spots below the room's consensus #228 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.

Kyren Williams

Draftanomics projects Kyren Williams (age 21.7 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #143 (range #131-#155, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: James Conner (Bust), Zack Moss (Contributor), Donnel Pumphrey. Ceiling is Zack Moss (Contributor); floor is Donnel Pumphrey. School SP+ 17.4 (FBS INDEPENDENTS). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. RAS 2.03 (20th percentile vs RB prospects in a 374-yr Combine population). Below the 30th-percentile bar that most NFL starters clear. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #95 and the model won't take him before #143 — a 48-spot markdown. The discount is earned — athletic profile below nfl threshold leads the case against.