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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2022 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (P)
JS
Jordan Stout
P · Penn St.
23.7 yo · 6'3" · 209 lb
TG
Trenton Gill
P · North Carolina St.
23.1 yo · 6'4" · 220 lb
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take Jordan Stout over Trenton Gill.

Decisive factor: 119-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a bust risk 23 points lower.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Jordan Stout
Predicted pick
#86
range #56–#116
Bust probability
25%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 2
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Trenton Gill
Predicted pick
#205
range #184–#226
Bust probability
49%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Jordan Stout· Specialists
  • Trenton Gill· Specialists
Axis leaders
  • ProductionJordan Stout50
  • AthleticismJordan Stout100
  • AgeTrenton Gill13
  • ConsensusJordan Stout66
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Jordan Stout50
  • Breakout ageJordan Stout50
  • WorkloadJordan Stout50
  • RAS × productionJordan Stout50

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Braden MannP · Bust→ shared byJordan StoutTrenton Gill
  • Logan CookeP · Bust→ shared byJordan StoutTrenton Gill
Jordan Stout
  • Braden Mannshared
    P · #191
    Bust
  • Mitch Wishnowsky
    P · #110
    Bust
  • Michael Dickson
    P · #149
    Bust
  • Logan Cookeshared
    P · #247
    Bust
  • JK Scott
    P · #172
    Bust
Trenton Gill
  • Sterling Hofrichter
    P · #228
    Bust
  • Johnny Townsend
    P · #173
    Bust
  • Jake Bailey
    P · #163
    Bust
  • Logan Cookeshared
    P · #247
    Bust
  • Braden Mannshared
    P · #191
    Bust

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Jordan Stout
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.7 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #182; model has him #86 — a 96-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
  • Comp group bust rate
    5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Braden Mann, Mitch Wishnowsky, Michael Dickson (+2 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Trenton Gill
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.1 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • Comp group bust rate
    5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Sterling Hofrichter, Johnny Townsend, Jake Bailey (+2 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Jordan StoutTrenton Gill· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Jordan Stout

Draftanomics projects Jordan Stout (age 23.7 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #86 (range #56-#116, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 25% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Braden Mann (Bust), Mitch Wishnowsky (Bust), Michael Dickson (Bust). Ceiling is Mitch Wishnowsky (Bust); floor is Logan Cooke (Bust). 5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Braden Mann, Mitch Wishnowsky, Michael Dickson (+2 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 96 spots ahead of the room (board #86 vs consensus #182), and at a 25% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

Trenton Gill

Draftanomics projects Trenton Gill (age 23.1 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #205 (range #184-#226, wide band). Bust probability sits at 49% — elevated. The comp set is dangerous: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Sterling Hofrichter (Bust), Johnny Townsend (Bust), Jake Bailey (Bust). Ceiling is Jake Bailey (Bust); floor is Logan Cooke (Bust). 5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Sterling Hofrichter, Johnny Townsend, Jake Bailey (+2 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #205 stands alone — and with bust risk at 49%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.