3 prospects · 2022 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Josh Paschal (age 22.4 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #87 (range #55-#119, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 30% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Charles Omenihu (Contributor), Breeland Speaks (Bust), Khalid Kareem (Bust). Ceiling is Charles Omenihu (Contributor); floor is Joe Jackson (Bust). 4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Breeland Speaks, Khalid Kareem, Daeshon Hall (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 14 spots below the room's consensus #73 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Isaiah Thomas (age 23.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #196 (range #156-#236, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 13% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Darrell Taylor (Contributor), Jason Strowbridge (Bust), Jonathan Greenard (Starter). Ceiling is Jonathan Greenard (Starter); floor is Trevis Gipson (Contributor). 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Jason Strowbridge, Kenny Willekes. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #94 and the model won't take him before #196 — a 102-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Zachary Carter (age 23.1 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #246 (range #198-#294, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 40% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Darrell Taylor (Contributor), Marlon Davidson (Backup), Kenny Willekes (Bust). Ceiling is Jonathan Greenard (Starter); floor is Marlon Davidson (Backup). 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Marlon Davidson, Kenny Willekes, Bradlee Anae. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #86 and the model won't take him before #246 — a 160-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.