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Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2022 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (RB)
PS
Pierre Strong
RB · South Dakota St.
23.4 yo · 5'11" · 207 lb
TC
Ty Chandler
RB · North Carolina
24.0 yo · — · —
RW
Rachaad White
RB · Arizona St.
23.3 yo · 6'0" · 214 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Pierre Strong
Predicted pick
#117
range #87–#147
Bust probability
19%
0%0/4 comps
Consensus rank
#121
on 2 boards
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Ty Chandler
Predicted pick
#255
range #231–#279
Bust probability
40%
0%0/4 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Rachaad White
Predicted pick
#119
range #82–#156
Bust probability
10%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#93
on 6 boards
Career arc
Contributor
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Pierre Strong· RB / WR / TE
  • Ty Chandler· RB / WR / TE
  • Rachaad White· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionPierre Strong0
  • AthleticismPierre Strong100
  • AgeRachaad White34
  • ConsensusPierre Strong31
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Pierre Strong50
  • Breakout agePierre Strong50
  • WorkloadTy Chandler100
  • RAS × productionTy Chandler91

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Joe WilliamsRB · TBD→ shared byPierre StrongTy Chandler
  • Trenton CannonRB · Bust→ shared byPierre StrongTy Chandler
Pierre Strong
  • Joe Williamsshared
    RB · #121
    TBD
  • Justin Jackson
    RB · #251
    Backup
  • Boston Scott
    RB · #201
    Contributor
  • Devante Mays
    RB · #238
    Bust
  • Trenton Cannonshared
    RB · #204
    Bust
Ty Chandler
  • Jordan Wilkins
    RB · #169
    Backup
  • David Williams
    RB · #226
    Bust
  • Jordan Scarlett
    RB · #154
    Bust
  • Joe Williamsshared
    RB · #121
    TBD
  • Trenton Cannonshared
    RB · #204
    Bust
Rachaad White
  • Ke'Shawn Vaughn
    RB · #76
    Bust
  • Eno Benjamin
    RB · #222
    Contributor
  • Joshua Kelley
    RB · #112
    Contributor
  • Antonio Gibson
    RB · #66
    Contributor
  • La'Mical Perine
    RB · #120
    Bust

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Pierre Strong
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.4 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • Comp group bust rate
    3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Justin Jackson, Devante Mays, Trenton Cannon. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
  • Negative per-play impact
    PPA avg_all 0.323 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Ty Chandler
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 24.0 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • Comp group bust rate
    4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Jordan Wilkins, David Williams, Jordan Scarlett (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
  • Negative per-play impact
    PPA avg_all 0.327 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    1 board have him at mean rank #132; model has him #255 — a 123-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
Rachaad White
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.3 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • Comp group bust rate
    2 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Ke'Shawn Vaughn, La'Mical Perine. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
  • Negative per-play impact
    PPA avg_all 0.351 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    7 boards have him at mean rank #87; model has him #119 — a 32-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Pierre StrongTy ChandlerRachaad White· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Pierre Strong

Draftanomics projects Pierre Strong (age 23.4 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #117 (range #87-#147, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 19% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Joe Williams, Justin Jackson (Backup), Boston Scott (Contributor). Ceiling is Joe Williams; floor is Justin Jackson (Backup). 3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Justin Jackson, Devante Mays, Trenton Cannon. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 12 spots below the room's consensus #105 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.

Ty Chandler

Draftanomics projects Ty Chandler (age 24.0 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #255 (range #231-#279, wide band). Bust probability sits at 40% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Jordan Wilkins (Backup), David Williams (Bust), Jordan Scarlett (Bust). Ceiling is Joe Williams; floor is Jordan Wilkins (Backup). 4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Jordan Wilkins, David Williams, Jordan Scarlett (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #132 and the model won't take him before #255 — a 123-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.

Rachaad White

Draftanomics projects Rachaad White (age 23.3 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #119 (range #82-#156, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 10% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Ke'Shawn Vaughn (Bust), Eno Benjamin (Contributor), Joshua Kelley (Contributor). Ceiling is Antonio Gibson (Contributor); floor is Eno Benjamin (Contributor). 2 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Ke'Shawn Vaughn, La'Mical Perine. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #87 and the model won't take him before #119 — a 32-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.