3 prospects · 2022 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Phidarian Mathis (age 24.0 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #125 (range #93-#157, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 31% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Neville Gallimore (Contributor), DaVon Hamilton (Starter), Larrell Murchison (Backup). Ceiling is DaVon Hamilton (Starter); floor is Larrell Murchison (Backup). 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Larrell Murchison, Robert Windsor. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #75 and the model won't take him before #125 — a 50-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Neil Farrell (age 23.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #149 (range #116-#182, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 36% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Neville Gallimore (Contributor), DaVon Hamilton (Starter), Larrell Murchison (Backup). Ceiling is DaVon Hamilton (Starter); floor is Larrell Murchison (Backup). RAS 2.34 (23th percentile vs DT prospects in a 321-yr Combine population). Below the 30th-percentile bar that most NFL starters clear. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #88 and the model won't take him before #149 — a 60-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Devonte Wyatt (age 24.1 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #34 (range #1-#73, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 10% — low. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Neville Gallimore (Contributor), DaVon Hamilton (Starter), Leki Fotu (Contributor). Ceiling is DaVon Hamilton (Starter); floor is Leki Fotu (Contributor). Age 24.1 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #34 sits within 9 spots of the room's #25 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 10% bust probability break ties on draft day.