2 prospects · 2022 draft
Decisive factor: 131-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a bust risk 28 points lower and a stronger historical comp arc.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Tyquan Thornton (age 21.7 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #90 (range #68-#112, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Antonio Callaway (Contributor), Darius Slayton (Franchise), Chris Godwin (Bust). Ceiling is Darius Slayton (Franchise); floor is Antonio Callaway (Contributor). 1 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Chris Godwin. Mixed signal from history. The call is a value lean: #90 against a consensus #102 is a 12-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with comp group has bust risk the tax on that edge.
Draftanomics projects Jalen Nailor (age 23.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #221 (range #199-#243, wide band). Bust probability sits at 28% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Jaleel Scott (Bust), J'Mon Moore (Bust), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Starter). Ceiling is Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Starter); floor is Marcus Green. Career trajectory in receiving yards: 106 → 515 → 695. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Jaleel Scott, J'Mon Moore, Dezmon Patmon. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a value lean: #221 against a consensus #237 is a 16-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with older prospect the tax on that edge.