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Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2022 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (CB)
DM
Damarri Mathis
CB · Pittsburgh
23.0 yo · 5'11" · 196 lb
KJ
Kerby Joseph
CB · Illinois
21.4 yo · — · —
JW
Joshua Williams
CB · Fayetteville St.
22.5 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Damarri Mathis
Predicted pick
#187
range #46–#230
Bust probability· rough estimate
34%
Consensus rank
#87
on 3 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Kerby Joseph
Predicted pick
#80
range #24–#201
Bust probability· rough estimate
28%
Consensus rank
#153
on 24 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$20Mmodel
Joshua Williams
Predicted pick
#99
range #43–#220
Bust probability· rough estimate
28%
Consensus rank
#133
on 9 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Damarri Mathis· CB / S
  • Kerby Joseph· CB / S
  • Joshua Williams· CB / S
Axis leaders
  • ProductionDamarri Mathis45
  • AthleticismKerby Joseph58
  • AgeKerby Joseph93
  • ConsensusDamarri Mathis18
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Damarri Mathis50
  • Breakout ageDamarri Mathis50
  • WorkloadDamarri Mathis100
  • RAS × productionDamarri Mathis0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Damarri Mathis
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Kerby Joseph
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Joshua Williams
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Damarri Mathis
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Kerby Joseph
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Joshua Williams
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Damarri MathisKerby JosephJoshua Williams· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Damarri Mathis

−0.04 age; −0.03 charting yards per coverage snap career avg; +0.02 production trajectory

Kerby Joseph

+0.03 age; −0.02 scout consensus; +0.02 boards with him top-100

Joshua Williams

−0.04 scout consensus; +0.04 boards with him top-100; +0.03 HS recruit rating