3 prospects · 2022 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Brandon Smith (age 21.0 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #95 (range #67-#123, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 19% — manageable. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Kamal Martin (Bust), Cody Barton (Starter), Ben Burr-Kirven (Bust). Ceiling is Willie Gay Jr. (Starter); floor is Blake Cashman (Starter). RAS 8.59 (85th percentile at LB). Athletic tools that translate cleanly to the NFL. 2 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Kamal Martin, Ben Burr-Kirven. Mixed signal from history. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #95 sits within 6 spots of the room's #89 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 19% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Mark Robinson (age 22.7 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #122 (range #81-#163, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 46% — elevated. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Joshua Uche (Contributor), Jayon Brown (Bust), David Long (Starter). Ceiling is David Long (Starter); floor is Joshua Uche (Contributor). 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Jayon Brown, Matthew Adams, Elijah Lee. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #122 stands alone — and with bust risk at 46%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Christian Harris (age 21.3 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #76 (range #46-#106, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 33% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Jachai Polite (Bust), Patrick Queen (Starter), Rashan Gary (Starter). Ceiling is Rashan Gary (Starter); floor is Raekwon McMillan. 2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Jachai Polite, Ben Burr-Kirven. Mixed signal from history. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 17 spots below the room's consensus #59 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group has bust risk leads the case against.