3 prospects · 2022 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Jalyn Armour-Davis (age 22.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #172 (range #132-#212, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 31% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Marquez White, Jourdan Lewis (Bust), Chris Williamson (Bust). Ceiling is Kendall Sheffield (Contributor); floor is Marquez White. 3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Jourdan Lewis, Chris Williamson, Jeremy Clark. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #91 and the model won't take him before #172 — a 81-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Kalon Barnes (age 23.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #192 (range #144-#240, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 42% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Chris Williamson (Bust), Lonnie Johnson Jr. (Starter), Chris Claybrooks (Contributor). Ceiling is Lonnie Johnson Jr. (Starter); floor is Ken Webster (Backup). 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Chris Williamson, Ken Webster, Tim Harris. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 20 spots below the room's consensus #172 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Riq Woolen (age 23.0 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #160 (range #118-#202, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 4% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Bryce Hall (Contributor), Fabian Moreau (Bust), Ken Webster (Backup). Ceiling is David Long (Contributor); floor is Ken Webster (Backup). RAS 9.74 (97th percentile at CB in a 496-yr Combine population). Elite athleticism is the strongest pre-NFL predictor of career length at most positions. 3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Fabian Moreau, Ken Webster, Isaiah Johnson. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #76 and the model won't take him before #160 — a 84-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.