3 prospects · 2022 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Dane Belton (age 21.4 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #102 (range #85-#119, wide band). Bust probability sits at 38% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is dangerous: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Thakarius Keyes (Bust), Chuck Clark (Bust), Harrison Hand (Bust). Ceiling is Jamal Agnew (Bust); floor is Thakarius Keyes (Bust). 5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Thakarius Keyes, Chuck Clark, Harrison Hand (+2 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 79 spots ahead of the room (board #102 vs consensus #181), and at a 38% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Deane Leonard (age 22.4 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #166 (range #164-#168, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 45% — elevated. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #166 stands alone — and with bust risk at 45%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects DaRon Bland (age 22.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #250 (range #232-#268, wide band). Bust probability sits at 35% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Thakarius Keyes (Bust), Chris Claybrooks (Contributor), Chris Williamson (Bust). Ceiling is Chris Claybrooks (Contributor); floor is Chris Williamson (Bust). 4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Thakarius Keyes, Chris Williamson, Derrick Jones (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #169 and the model won't take him before #250 — a 81-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.