Draftanomics
  • 2027 board
  • Consensus board
  • 2028 way-too-early
  • Draft news
  • Simulator
  • The house mock
  • Draft order
  • Trade calculator
  • The Scouting Slate
  • Sleepers & reaches
  • Movers & fallers
  • Player comps
  • Dynasty rookie board
  • Track record
  • Past drafts, re-graded
  • Analyst leaderboard
My rankingsAccount
Get the weekly →
Draftanomics

Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

Boards
  • 2027 board
  • Consensus board
  • Sleepers
Tools
  • Mock draft simulator
  • Plays Like
  • Dynasty rookie board
Track Record
  • Year-by-year results
  • Accountability Index
  • Our board, on the record
  • Past drafts, re-graded
  • Methodology
  • Developers · free API
  • About
Account
  • My board
  • Weekly email
Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2022 board/
  4. Compare

Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2022 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (QB)
MC
Matt Corral
QB · Mississippi
23.2 yo · 6'2" · 212 lb
ST
Skylar Thompson
QB · Kansas St.
24.9 yo · 6'2" · 217 lb
CO
Chris Oladokun
QB · South Dakota St.
24.6 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Matt Corral
Predicted pick
#61
range #35–#165
Bust probability· rough estimate
24%
Consensus rank
#50
on 26 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Skylar Thompson
Predicted pick
#258
range #219–#297
Bust probability· rough estimate
51%
0%comp-based · 0/4
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Bust
tier · PFA
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Chris Oladokun
Predicted pick
#223
range #191–#255
Bust probability· rough estimate
65%
0%comp-based · 0/5
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Matt Corral· QB
  • Skylar Thompson· QB
  • Chris Oladokun· QB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionMatt Corral50
  • AthleticismMatt Corral0
  • AgeMatt Corral55
  • ConsensusMatt Corral98
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Matt Corral50
  • Breakout ageMatt Corral50
  • WorkloadMatt Corral50
  • RAS × productionMatt Corral50

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Ryan FinleyQB · Backup→ shared bySkylar ThompsonChris Oladokun
  • Tommy StevensQB · Bust→ shared bySkylar ThompsonChris Oladokun
  • Jake LutonQB · Bust→ shared bySkylar ThompsonChris Oladokun
Matt Corral
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Skylar Thompson
  • Ryan Finleyshared
    QB · #104
    Backup
  • Will Grier
    QB · #100
    Bust
  • Danny Etling
    QB · #219
    TBD
  • Tommy Stevensshared
    QB · #240
    Bust
  • Jake Lutonshared
    QB · #189
    Bust
Chris Oladokun
  • Ryan Finleyshared
    QB · #104
    Backup
  • Jake Lutonshared
    QB · #189
    Bust
  • Easton Stick
    QB · #166
    Contributor
  • Ben DiNucci
    QB · #231
    Bust
  • Tommy Stevensshared
    QB · #240
    Bust

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Matt Corral
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Skylar Thompson
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 24.9 at draft. Players entering the league past 24 hit fewer career milestones — the developmental window is already compressed before they take an NFL snap.
  • Average-to-below athletic profile
    RAS 4.22 (42th percentile at QB). Athleticism is average at best for the position.
  • Comp group bust rate
    4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Ryan Finley, Will Grier, Tommy Stevens (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Chris Oladokun
Risks
  • Missed entire rookie season
    Drafted #241 by PIT in 2022 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have.
  • Older prospect
    Age 24.6 at draft. Players entering the league past 24 hit fewer career milestones — the developmental window is already compressed before they take an NFL snap.
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Matt CorralSkylar ThompsonChris Oladokun· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Matt Corral

+0.07 boards with him top-100; +0.05 boards with him top-50; +0.04 scout consensus

Skylar Thompson

Draftanomics projects Skylar Thompson (age 24.9 at draft) as a priority UDFA at #258 (range #219-#297, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 51% — elevated. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Ryan Finley (Backup), Will Grier (Bust), Danny Etling. Ceiling is Danny Etling; floor is Ryan Finley (Backup). Age 24.9 at draft. Players entering the league past 24 hit fewer career milestones — the developmental window is already compressed before they take an NFL snap. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 23 spots below the room's consensus #235 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.

Chris Oladokun

Draftanomics projects Chris Oladokun (age 24.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #223 (range #191-#255, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Ryan Finley (Backup), Jake Luton (Bust), Easton Stick (Contributor). Ceiling is Easton Stick (Contributor); floor is Ryan Finley (Backup). Drafted #241 by PIT in 2022 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #223 stands alone — and with bust risk at 65%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.