2 prospects · 2022 draft
Decisive factor: 44-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a stronger historical comp arc and $9M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Kenneth Walker III (age 21.5 at draft) as a first-round pick at #29 (range #1-#58, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Marlon Mack (Bust), Christian McCaffrey (Bust), Miles Sanders (Starter). Ceiling is Miles Sanders (Starter); floor is Cam Akers (Contributor). Career trajectory in rushing yards: 579 → 579 → 1636. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Marlon Mack, Christian McCaffrey. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a value lean: #29 against a consensus #48 is a 19-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with comp group bust rate the tax on that edge.
Draftanomics projects Isaiah Spiller (age 20.7 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #73 (range #50-#96, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: David Montgomery (Starter), D'Andre Swift (Starter), Derrius Guice (Bust). Ceiling is D'Andre Swift (Starter); floor is David Montgomery (Starter). 3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Derrius Guice, D'Onta Foreman, Wayne Gallman. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #73 sits within 6 spots of the room's #67 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.