3 prospects · 2024 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Jayden Daniels (age 23.4 at draft) as a first-round pick at #13 (range #1-#37, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Kyler Murray (Starter), Joe Burrow (Franchise), Zach Wilson (Starter). Ceiling is Joe Burrow (Franchise); floor is Mac Jones (Starter). Career trajectory in passing yards: 701 → 2380 → 2913 → 3812. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. Age 23.4 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #13 sits within 2 spots of the room's #15 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Caleb Williams (age 22.4 at draft) as a top-10 pick at #8 (range #1-#42, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Zach Wilson (Starter), Dwayne Haskins (Contributor), Sam Howell (Contributor). Ceiling is Zach Wilson (Starter); floor is Sam Howell (Contributor). RAS 2.22 (22th percentile vs QB prospects in a 20-yr Combine population). Below the 30th-percentile bar that most NFL starters clear. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #8 and the room's #8 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Drake Maye (age 21.6 at draft) as a top-10 pick at #2 (range #1-#12, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Trey Lance (Bust), Trevor Lawrence (Franchise), Daniel Jones (Franchise). Ceiling is Trevor Lawrence (Franchise); floor is Drew Lock (Contributor). The call is a hold at slot: the model's #2 sits within 8 spots of the room's #10 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 6% bust probability break ties on draft day.