Guard G
Same inputs as tackle, with slightly more emphasis on Senior Bowl + Pro Day testing.
Likeliest career, by the outcome model.
How many guards land in each career bucket as the model's single most likely finish. This is a different question from the board grades below — a prospect can be a Day 3 grade and still have “starter” as his likeliest outcome. The tails (elite, bust) are where the model separates; the middle two buckets sit close to a coin flip.
The board.
All 8 guards with a draftable grade on Draftanomics's 2018 board, tier by tier.
No blue-chip guard this cycle — Quenton Nelson is the class's best, and he carries the next grade down.
Two names carry a first-round grade — Quenton Nelson in front at No. 10, Will Hernandez close behind at No. 16. The drop behind Hernandez is the story — Braden Smith does not come off the board for another 27 picks. And the floor is solid: the bust model, reliable for guards, clears everyone here.
Braden Smith and Wyatt Teller make up the Day 2 tier, projected No. 43 and No. 65 overall. Mind the gap after Teller: Cole Madison is next, and he is 68 picks away. Wyatt Teller is the argument in this tier — No. 65 on our board against a consensus No. 151.
Four guards carry a Day 3 grade, and Cole Madison heads the group at a projected No. 133 overall. One caution flag: the bust model — a group it reads well at guard — puts Rod Taylor at 70 percent.