Offensive tackle OT
Athleticism + games started + Senior Bowl invite carry most of the weight — college stats say little about offensive line play.
Likeliest career, by the outcome model.
How many offensive tackles land in each career bucket as the model's single most likely finish. This is a different question from the board grades below — a prospect can be a Day 3 grade and still have “starter” as his likeliest outcome. The tails (elite, bust) are where the model separates; the middle two buckets sit close to a coin flip.
The board.
All 7 offensive tackles with a draftable grade on Draftanomics's 2021 board, tier by tier.
No blue-chip offensive tackle this cycle — Jackson Carman is the class's best, and he carries the next grade down.
An empty tier, honestly labeled — no offensive tackle earns a first-round grade this cycle.
Jackson Carman out of Clemson fronts a three-man Day 2 tier at No. 65 overall, with Radunz and Little filling it out. Mind the gap after Little: D'Ante Smith is next, and he is 75 picks away. And the floor is solid: the bust model, reliable for offensive tackles, clears everyone here.
Four offensive tackles carry a Day 3 grade, and D'Ante Smith heads the group at a projected No. 159 overall. D'Ante Smith carries the tier's risk, a 36 percent bust probability from a model with real signal at offensive tackle.