Safety S
Tackles + PBUs + speed + Senior Bowl. The bust model is weakest at safety — treat predictions as directional.
Likeliest career, by the outcome model.
How many safeties land in each career bucket as the model's single most likely finish. This is a different question from the board grades below — a prospect can be a Day 3 grade and still have “starter” as his likeliest outcome. The tails (elite, bust) are where the model separates; the middle two buckets sit close to a coin flip.
The board.
All 18 safeties with a draftable grade on Draftanomics's 2018 board, tier by tier.
No blue-chip safety this cycle — Minkah Fitzpatrick is the class's best, and he carries the next grade down.
Minkah Fitzpatrick and Derwin James make up the first-round tier, projected No. 8 and No. 12 overall. Then the board falls off a cliff — 27 projected picks between James and Kyzir White, the next name down.
The Day 2 tier runs 10 deep, opening with Kyzir White out of West Virginia at No. 39 and closing with Jessie Bates III at No. 103. The drop to Terrell Edmunds is 16 projected picks: a step, not a cliff. The model is planting a flag on DeShon Elliott, 48 spots ahead of where the room ranks him (No. 122).
This is where the class lives: 6 safetys carry a Day 3 grade, with Terrell Edmunds out of Virginia Tech at the front of the line at No. 119 overall.