Safety S
Tackles + PBUs + speed + Senior Bowl. The bust model is weakest at safety — treat predictions as directional.
Likeliest career, by the outcome model.
How many safeties land in each career bucket as the model's single most likely finish. This is a different question from the board grades below — a prospect can be a Day 3 grade and still have “starter” as his likeliest outcome. The tails (elite, bust) are where the model separates; the middle two buckets sit close to a coin flip.
The board.
All 24 safeties with a draftable grade on Draftanomics's 2020 board, tier by tier.
The top shelf is bare: no safety in the 2020 class earns a blue-chip grade.
Xavier McKinney out of Alabama is the first-round tier by himself, projected No. 27 overall. There is a real step down from there — Jeremy Chinn sits 11 projected picks behind McKinney.
This is where the class lives: 9 safetys carry a Day 2 grade, with Jeremy Chinn out of Southern Illinois at the front of the line at No. 38 overall. Then the board falls off a cliff — 38 projected picks between Thomas and Julian Blackmon, the next name down. Terrell Burgess is the argument in this tier — No. 84 on our board against a consensus No. 145.
The Day 3 tier runs 14 deep, opening with Julian Blackmon out of Utah at No. 137 and closing with Chris Jackson at No. 231. One split worth knowing: consensus puts K'Von Wallace at No. 62, 89 spots above our call.