The 2023 draft, re-graded the career receipt

The class re-ordered by realized career value through the 2025 season — Career Score, our open-data measure of what a career actually amounted to (playing time, durability, what the market paid on a second contract, and early-career honors) — with All-Pro selections, Pro Bowls, and seasons started breaking ties. 258 picks graded. This class is 3 seasons old: grades are provisional until the rookie-deal window closes.

Re-draft No. 1

Jack Campbell

LB · pick 18 (DET, 2023)

Actually went 18th to DET.

65 Career Score · 1 Pro Bowl · 1 All-Pro

Biggest steal

Henry To'oTo'o

LB · pick 167 (HOU, 2023)

Taken 167th; career value ranks 10th in the class.

52 Career Score · 0 Pro Bowls · 0 All-Pros

Biggest bust

Anthony Richardson

QB · pick 4 (IND, 2023)

Pick 4 returned a 10 Career Score over 17 games.

10 Career Score · 0 Pro Bowls · 0 All-Pros

The first round, re-graded

Pick by pick, where each first-rounder went vs. where the career says he should have gone — Jaxon Smith-Njigba outplayed his slot by 18 spots, while Anthony Richardson fell 189.

see all 32 picks ▾

Pick	Team	Player	Pos	Career Score	PB	AP	Starts (yrs)	Re-draft slot	Δ
1	CAR	Bryce Young	QB	34	0	0	2	31	-30
2	HOU	C.J. Stroud	QB	40	1	0	3	20	-18
3	HOU	Will Anderson	LB	61	2	1	3	4	-1
4	IND	Anthony Richardson	QB	10	0	0	1	193	-189
5	SEA	Devon Witherspoon	CB	42	3	0	3	14	-9
6	ARI	Paris Johnson	OL	33	0	0	3	35	-29
7	LVR	Tyree Wilson	OLB	22	0	0	0	86	-79
8	ATL	Bijan Robinson	RB	61	2	1	3	5	+3
9	PHI	Jalen Carter	DL	60	2	0	2	7	+2
10	CHI	Darnell Wright	OL	62	0	0	3	3	+7
11	TEN	Peter Skoronski	OL	36	0	0	3	29	-18
12	DET	Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	55	3	0	1	9	+3
13	GNB	Lukas Van Ness	DL	20	0	0	0	115	-102
14	PIT	Broderick Jones	OL	31	0	0	3	37	-23
15	NYJ	Will McDonald	EDGE	22	0	0	2	89	-74
16	WAS	Emmanuel Forbes	CB	22	0	0	1	94	-78
17	NWE	Christian Gonzalez	CB	29	1	0	2	49	-32
18	DET	Jack Campbell	LB	65	1	1	3	1	+17
19	TAM	Calijah Kancey	DL	20	0	0	1	119	-100
20	SEA	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	64	2	1	2	2	+18
21	LAC	Quentin Johnston	WR	27	0	0	3	57	-36
22	BAL	Zay Flowers	WR	60	2	0	3	6	+16
23	MIN	Jordan Addison	WR	30	0	0	3	43	-20
24	NYG	Deonte Banks	CB	29	0	0	2	50	-26
25	BUF	Dalton Kincaid	TE	24	1	0	2	74	-49
26	DAL	Mazi Smith	DL	16	0	0	1	147	-121
27	JAX	Anton Harrison	OL	36	0	0	3	27	0
28	CIN	Myles Murphy	EDGE	21	0	0	1	97	-69
29	NOR	Bryan Bresee	DT	27	0	0	2	58	-29
30	PHI	Nolan Smith	OLB	20	0	0	1	108	-78
31	KAN	Felix Anudike-Uzomah	EDGE	11	0	0	0	185	-154

The re-draft

The top 32 of the 2023 class by career value — the first round as it would go with the careers known.

Slot	Player	Pos	Actual pick	Drafted by	Career Score	PB	AP	Games
1	Jack Campbell	LB	18	DET	65	1	1	51
2	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	20	SEA	64	2	1	51
3	Darnell Wright	OL	10	CHI	62	0	0	49
4	Will Anderson	LB	3	HOU	61	2	1	46
5	Bijan Robinson	RB	8	ATL	61	2	1	51
6	Zay Flowers	WR	22	BAL	60	2	0	50
7	Jalen Carter	DL	9	PHI	60	2	0	43
8	Joe Tippmann	OL	43	NYJ	57	0	0	50
9	Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	12	DET	55	3	0	49
10	Henry To'oTo'o	LB	167	HOU	52	0	0	46
11	De'Von Achane	RB	84	MIA	47	1	0	44
12	Derick Hall	EDGE	37	SEA	45	0	0	48
13	Darnell Washington	TE	93	PIT	43	0	0	50
14	Devon Witherspoon	CB	5	SEA	42	3	0	43
15	Nick Herbig	OLB	132	PIT	42	0	0	45
16	Brenton Strange	TE	61	JAX	42	0	0	43
17	Dontayvion Wicks	WR	159	GNB	42	0	0	46
18	Jayden Reed	WR	50	GNB	41	0	0	40
19	O'Cyrus Torrence	OL	59	BUF	40	0	0	51
20	C.J. Stroud	QB	2	HOU	40	1	0	46
21	Puka Nacua	WR	177	LAR	39	2	1	44
22	Byron Young	LB	77	LAR	37	1	0	51
23	Jonathan Mingo	WR	39	CAR	37	0	0	38
24	Matthew Bergeron	OL	38	ATL	37	0	0	49
25	Joey Porter Jr.	CB	32	PIT	36	0	0	47
26	Dawand Jones	OL	111	CLE	36	0	0	24
27	Anton Harrison	OL	27	JAX	36	0	0	48
28	Brian Branch	CB	45	DET	36	1	0	43
29	Peter Skoronski	OL	11	TEN	36	0	0	48
30	Steve Avila	C	36	LAR	35	0	0	42
31	Bryce Young	QB	1	CAR	34	0	0	46
32	Tuli Tuipulotu	DL	54	LAC	34	1	0	50

The steals

Day 2-3 picks whose careers rank with the first round. Scored by how far they fell, weighted by career value.

167
Henry To'oTo'oLB · HOU
Taken 167th; career value ranks 10th in the class.
43
Joe TippmannOL · NYJ
Taken 43rd; career value ranks 8th in the class.
84
De'Von AchaneRB · MIA
Taken 84th; career value ranks 11th in the class.
159
Dontayvion WicksWR · GNB
Taken 159th; career value ranks 17th in the class.
132
Nick HerbigOLB · PIT
Taken 132nd; career value ranks 15th in the class.

The busts

Premium picks (rounds 1-2), minimal careers. Scored by draft capital spent against Career Score returned.

4
Anthony RichardsonQB · IND
Pick 4 returned a 10 Career Score over 17 games.
7
Tyree WilsonOLB · LVR
Pick 7 returned a 22 Career Score over 50 games.
13
Lukas Van NessDL · GNB
Pick 13 returned a 20 Career Score over 43 games.
15
Will McDonaldEDGE · NYJ
Pick 15 returned a 22 Career Score over 47 games.
16
Emmanuel ForbesCB · WAS
Pick 16 returned a 22 Career Score over 39 games.

Every team's 2023 class

Value captured against slot, team by team — including the pick each front office would want back.

Method

Career value is Career Score — our open-data index of playing time, durability, second-contract market value, and early-career honors — with All-Pro selections, Pro Bowls, seasons started, and draft position breaking ties. Steals are scored by ln(pick ÷ re-draft slot) × Career Score over picks 33 and later; busts by draft capital spent (within the top 64) minus Career Score returned. Consensus is the aggregated pre-draft big board. Everything on this page is computed from outcome tables — no model, no projections, no prose engine.