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RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
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← Draftanomics
Past class — locked, then graded

2015 NFL Draft

A past class. The model never saw these players when it learned — this board is what Draftanomics would have said on draft night, graded against how the careers actually played out.

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Showing 64 of 254 prospects in this draft class
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64 of 64 prospects shown · ranked by the career-value model

Blue Chip

6 prospects · picks #1–#6

Day-1 starter ceiling. The class's franchise pieces.

1
Mark GlowinskiPre-Combine

Mark Glowinski

Blue Chipblend#1$12MG·West Virginia·6'4", 307 lb·$12M($4M–$20M)·405.20⚠ barely scouted

Blue-chip G ceiling. What the model likes: charting total career snaps, strength of schedule.

Bust probability4%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #134SEA
2
Shaq ThompsonPre-Combine

Shaq Thompson

Blue ChipOLB·Washington·6'0", 228 lb·21.0 yrs·$19M·404.64⚠ barely scouted

Blue-chip OLB ceiling. What the model likes: position role purity, HS recruit rating.

Career outlookBust 19%(tails only)
Bust probability25%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #25CARY1 4.2
3
T.J. YeldonPre-Combine

T.J. Yeldon

Blue Chipblend#3$11MRB·Alabama·6'1", 226 lb·21.6 yrs·$11M($4M–$17M)·404.61⚠ barely scouted

Blue-chip RB ceiling. What the model likes: production trajectory, charting total career snaps.

Bust probability· low confidence10%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #36JAXY1 17.6
4
Darius PhilonPre-Combine

Darius Philon

Blue ChipDT·Arkansas·6'1", 298 lb·21.3 yrs·$10M($0M–$19M)·405.00⚠ barely scouted

Blue-chip DT ceiling. What the model likes: charting total career snaps, HS recruit rating.

Bust probability27%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #192SDGY1 5.3
5
Martrell SpaightPre-Combine

Martrell Spaight

Blue ChipOLB·Arkansas·21.7 yrs·$9M⚠ barely scouted

Blue-chip OLB ceiling. What the model likes: charting total career snaps, HS recruit rating.

Career outlookBust 23%(tails only)
Bust probability21%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #141WASY1 0.1
6
Danielle HunterPre-Combine

Danielle Hunter

Blue ChipEDGE·LSU·6'5", 252 lb·20.5 yrs·$25M($16M–$34M)·404.57⚠ barely scouted

Blue-chip EDGE ceiling. What the model likes: charting total career snaps, HS recruit rating.

Bust probability9%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #88MINY1 4.5

1st Round

26 prospects · picks #7–#32

Year-1 starter probability. First-round capital.

7
Kwon AlexanderPre-Combine

Kwon Alexander

1st RoundOLB·LSU·6'1", 227 lb·20.7 yrs·$20M·404.55⚠ barely scouted

First-round OLB profile. What the model likes: charting total career snaps, HS recruit rating.

Bust probability17%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #124TAMY1 5.7
8
Leonard WilliamsPre-Combine

Leonard Williams

1st RoundEDGE·USC·20.9 yrs·$35M($25M–$44M)⚠ barely scouted

First-round EDGE profile. What the model likes: charting total career snaps, HS recruit rating.

Career outlookElite 38%
Bust probability20%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #6NYJY1 5.6
9
Malcom BrownPre-Combine

Malcom Brown

1st RoundDT·Texas·6'2", 319 lb·21.2 yrs·$11M($1M–$20M)·405.05⚠ barely scouted

First-round DT profile. What the model likes: charting total career snaps, HS recruit rating.

Career outlookBust 17%(tails only)
Bust probability27%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #32NWEY1 5.6
10
Shaquille RiddickPre-Combine

Shaquille Riddick

1st RoundEDGE·West Virginia·21.9 yrs·$16M($7M–$25M)⚠ barely scouted

First-round EDGE profile. What the model likes: charting total career snaps, HS recruit rating. Bust risk moderate (44%).

Career outlookBust 23%(tails only)
Bust probability44%Moderate risk
Plays like
NFL pick #158ARI
11
Trey FlowersPre-Combine

Trey Flowers

1st RoundEDGE·Arkansas·6'2", 266 lb·21.7 yrs·$15M($6M–$24M)·404.93⚠ barely scouted

First-round EDGE profile. What the model likes: charting total career snaps, strength of schedule.

Career outlookBust 22%(tails only)
Bust probability26%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #101NWEY1 6.1
12
Landon CollinsPre-Combine

Landon Collins

1st RoundS·Alabama·6'0", 228 lb·21.3 yrs·$19M($13M–$26M)·404.53⚠ barely scouted

First-round S profile. What the model likes: charting total career snaps, HS recruit rating.

Career outlookBust 26%(tails only)
Bust probability· low confidence9%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #33NYGY1 5.8
13
Dorial Green-BeckhamPre-Combine

Dorial Green-Beckham

1st RoundWR·Oklahoma·6'5", 237 lb·22.0 yrs·$12M($6M–$18M)·404.49⚠ barely scouted

First-round WR profile. What the model likes: HS recruit rating, charting total career snaps.

Bust probability29%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #40TENY1 15.4
14
Jeremiah PoutasiPre-Combine

Jeremiah Poutasi

1st RoundG·Utah·6'5", 335 lb·$6M($0M–$14M)·405.32⚠ barely scouted

First-round G profile. What the model likes: HS recruit rating, charting total career snaps.

Bust probability7%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #66TEN
15
Damien WilsonPre-Combine

Damien Wilson

1st RoundILB·Minnesota·6'0", 245 lb·21.9 yrs·$6M·404.77⚠ barely scouted

First-round ILB profile. What the model likes: HS recruit rating, charting total career snaps.

Career outlookBust 20%(tails only)
Bust probability25%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #127DALY1 0.7
16
D.J. HumphriesPre-Combine

D.J. Humphries

1st Roundblend#16$5MOT·Florida·6'5", 307 lb·$20M($12M–$29M)·405.12⚠ barely scouted

First-round OT profile. What the model likes: HS recruit rating, age.

Career outlookBust 16%(tails only)
Bust probability· low confidence4%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #24ARI
17
Nate OrchardPre-Combine

Nate Orchard

1st RoundEDGE·Utah·6'3", 250 lb·22.3 yrs·$13M($3M–$22M)·404.80⚠ barely scouted

First-round EDGE profile. What the model likes: HS recruit rating, charting total career snaps.

Career outlookBust 18%(tails only)
Bust probability26%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #51CLEY1 5.8
18
Amari CooperPre-Combine

Amari Cooper

1st Roundblend#18$5MWR·Alabama·6'1", 211 lb·20.9 yrs·$25M($19M–$31M)·404.42⚠ barely scouted

First-round WR profile. What the model likes: age, charting total career snaps.

Career outlookBust 19%(tails only)
Bust probability18%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #4OAKY1 17.7
19
Dante FowlerPre-Combine

Dante Fowler

1st RoundOLB·Florida·6'3", 261 lb·20.7 yrs·$24M·404.60⚠ barely scouted

First-round OLB profile. What the model likes: HS recruit rating, charting total career snaps.

Career outlookBust 22%(tails only)
Bust probability21%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #3JAX
20
JaCorey ShepherdPre-Combine

JaCorey Shepherd

1st RoundCB·Kansas·5'11", 199 lb·22.1 yrs·$5M($0M–$12M)·404.62⚠ barely scouted

First-round CB profile. What the model likes: charting total career snaps, HS recruit rating. Bust risk moderate (43%).

Bust probability· low confidence43%Moderate risk
Plays like
NFL pick #191PHI
21
Frank ClarkPre-Combine

Frank Clark

1st RoundEDGE·Michigan·6'3", 271 lb·21.9 yrs·$28M($19M–$37M)·404.79⚠ barely scouted

First-round EDGE profile. What the model likes: age, charting total career snaps.

Career outlookBust 20%(tails only)
Bust probability29%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #63SEAY1 5.9
22
Alex CarterPre-Combine

Alex Carter

1st RoundCB·Stanford·6'0", 196 lb·20.5 yrs·$4M($0M–$11M)·404.51⚠ barely scouted

First-round CB profile. What the model likes: HS recruit rating, charting total career snaps.

Career outlookBust 24%(tails only)
Bust probability· low confidence9%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #80DET
23
Bud DupreePre-Combine

Bud Dupree

1st RoundOLB·Kentucky·22.2 yrs·$31M⚠ barely scouted

First-round OLB profile. What the model likes: HS recruit rating, charting total career snaps.

Career outlookElite 20%(tails only)
Bust probability21%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #22PITY1 5.3
24
Eli HaroldPre-Combine

Eli Harold

1st RoundOLB·Virginia·6'3", 247 lb·21.3 yrs·$13M·404.60⚠ barely scouted

First-round OLB profile. What the model likes: HS recruit rating, age.

Bust probability21%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #79SFOY1 4.1
25
Andrus PeatPre-Combine

Andrus Peat

1st RoundOT·Stanford·6'7", 313 lb·$20M($11M–$28M)·405.18⚠ barely scouted

First-round OT profile. What the model likes: HS recruit rating, charting total career snaps.

Career outlookBust 16%(tails only)
Bust probability· low confidence4%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #13NOR
26
Max VallesPre-Combine

Max Valles

1st RoundOLB·Virginia·6'5", 251 lb·20.7 yrs·$20M·404.83⚠ barely scouted

First-round OLB profile. What the model likes: HS recruit rating, charting total career snaps.

Bust probability21%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #179OAK
27
Nelson AgholorPre-Combine

Nelson Agholor

1st Roundblend#27$4MWR·USC·6'0", 198 lb·21.9 yrs·$19M($13M–$25M)·404.42⚠ barely scouted

First-round WR profile. What the model likes: charting total career snaps, HS recruit rating.

Bust probability13%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #20PHIY1 12.6
28
Trent BrownPre-Combine

Trent Brown

1st RoundG·Florida·$14M($5M–$22M)⚠ barely scouted

First-round G profile. What the model likes: HS recruit rating, charting total career snaps.

Bust probability6%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #244SFO
29
Todd GurleyPre-Combine

Todd Gurley

1st RoundRB·Georgia·6'1", 222 lb·20.7 yrs·$19M($13M–$25M)·404.52⚠ barely scouted

First-round RB profile. What the model likes: HS recruit rating, charting total career snaps.

Bust probability· low confidence19%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #10STLY1 17.9
30
Arik ArmsteadPre-Combine

Arik Armstead

1st RoundDT·Oregon·21.4 yrs·$18M($8M–$27M)⚠ barely scouted

First-round DT profile. What the model likes: HS recruit rating, charting total career snaps.

Career outlookBust 19%(tails only)
Bust probability16%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #17SFOY1 4.8
31
Cameron ErvingPre-Combine

Cameron Erving

1st Roundblend#31$3MC·Florida St.·6'5", 313 lb·$14M($6M–$22M)·405.15⚠ barely scouted

First-round C profile. What the model likes: HS recruit rating, charting total career snaps.

Career outlookBust 17%(tails only)
Bust probability4%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #19CLE
32
Jesse JamesPre-Combine

Jesse James

1st RoundTE·Penn St.·6'7", 261 lb·20.9 yrs·$8M($2M–$14M)·404.83⚠ barely scouted

First-round TE profile. What the model likes: college production, HS recruit rating.

Bust probability· low confidence26%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #160PITY1 8.7

Day 2

32 prospects · picks #33–#64

Year-1 contributor, year-3 starter timeline. Round 2-3 value.

33
P.J. WilliamsPre-Combine

P.J. Williams

Day 2CB·Florida St.·6'0", 194 lb·21.9 yrs·$7M($0M–$14M)·404.57⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: HS recruit rating, charting total career snaps.

Bust probability· low confidence25%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #78NOR
34
Ronald DarbyPre-Combine

Ronald Darby

Day 2CB·Florida St.·5'11", 193 lb·21.3 yrs·$14M($8M–$21M)·404.38⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: HS recruit rating, charting total career snaps.

Career outlookBust 23%(tails only)
Bust probability· low confidence4%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #50BUFY1 5.8
35
Cedric OgbuehiPre-Combine

Cedric Ogbuehi

Day 2blend#35$3MOT·Texas A&M·6'5", 306 lb·$7M($0M–$15M)·404.98⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: charting total career snaps, age.

Career outlookBust 13%(tails only)
Bust probability· low confidence6%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #21CIN
36
Tyler KroftPre-Combine

Tyler Kroft

Day 2TE·Rutgers·6'5", 246 lb·22.5 yrs·$9M($3M–$15M)·404.75⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: production trajectory; the knock: power-5 production share.

Bust probability· low confidence31%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #85CINY1 7.6
37
Adrian AmosPre-Combine

Adrian Amos

Day 2S·Penn St.·6'0", 218 lb·22.0 yrs·$14M($7M–$20M)·404.56⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: charting total career snaps.

Career outlookBust 21%(tails only)
Bust probability· low confidence9%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #142CHIY1 5.3
38
Steven NelsonPre-Combine

Steven Nelson

Day 2CB·Oregon St.·5'10", 197 lb·22.3 yrs·$11M($4M–$17M)·404.49⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: HS recruit rating, charting total career snaps.

Bust probability· low confidence12%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #98KANY1 1.9
39
Mitch MorsePre-Combine

Mitch Morse

Day 2blend#39$3MG·Missouri·6'5", 305 lb·$14M($6M–$22M)·405.14⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: charting total career snaps, age.

Career outlookBust 18%(tails only)
Bust probability6%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #49KAN
40
Cedric ThompsonPre-Combine

Cedric Thompson

Day 2S·Minnesota·22.2 yrs·$9M($2M–$16M)⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: position role purity, age.

Career outlookBust 19%(tails only)
Bust probability· low confidence33%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #150MIA
41
Stefon DiggsPre-Combine

Stefon Diggs

Day 2blend#41$3MWR·Maryland·6'0", 195 lb·21.4 yrs·$19M($13M–$25M)·404.46⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: HS recruit rating, age.

Bust probability24%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #146MINY1 17.2
42
Za'Darius SmithPre-Combine

Za'Darius Smith

Day 2EDGE·Kentucky·6'4", 274 lb·22.6 yrs·$17M($8M–$27M)·404.83⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: HS recruit rating, charting total career snaps.

Bust probability26%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #122BALY1 4.9
43
Tyrus ThompsonPre-Combine

Tyrus Thompson

Day 2blend#43$3MOT·Oklahoma·6'5", 324 lb·$9M($1M–$17M)·405.35⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: charting total career snaps, age.

Bust probability· low confidence6%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #185MIN
44
Mario EdwardsPre-Combine

Mario Edwards

Day 2DT·Florida St.·21.3 yrs·$15M($5M–$24M)⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: HS recruit rating, charting total career snaps.

Career outlookBust 19%(tails only)
Bust probability16%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #35OAKY1 5.9
45
Brett HundleyPre-Combine

Brett Hundley

Day 2blend#45QB·UCLA·6'3", 226 lb·21.9 yrs·—·404.63⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: production trajectory; the knock: power-5 production share.

Career outlookBust 23%(tails only)
Bust probability· low confidence23%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #147GNB
46
Jameis WinstonPre-Combine

Jameis Winston

Day 2blend#46QB·Florida St.·6'4", 231 lb·21.3 yrs·—·404.97⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: HS recruit rating, production trajectory.

Career outlookBust 15%(tails only)
Bust probability· low confidence30%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #1TAMY1 16.3
47
Devin FunchessPre-Combine

Devin Funchess

Day 2blend#47$2MWR·Michigan·6'4", 232 lb·20.9 yrs·$9M($3M–$15M)·404.70⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: HS recruit rating, age.

Bust probability13%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #41CARY1 15.8
48
Joe CardonaPre-Combine

Joe Cardona

Day 2LS·Navy·6'2", 242 lb·$4M($1M–$7M)·404.91⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: HS recruit rating.

Bust probability29%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #166NWE
49
Bradley PinionPre-Combine

Bradley Pinion

Day 2P·Clemson·6'5", 229 lb·20.9 yrs·$4M($1M–$7M)·405.18⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: HS recruit rating, charting total career snaps.

Bust probability32%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #165SFOY1 6.0
50
Eddie GoldmanPre-Combine

Eddie Goldman

Day 2DT·Florida St.·6'4", 336 lb·21.3 yrs·$17M($8M–$27M)·405.28⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: HS recruit rating, charting total career snaps.

Bust probability17%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #39CHIY1 5.3
51
Andy GallikPre-Combine

Andy Gallik

Day 2C·Boston Col.·6'2", 306 lb·$4M($0M–$12M)·405.50⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: HS recruit rating.

Bust probability8%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #208TEN
52
A.J. DerbyPre-Combine

A.J. Derby

Day 2TE·Arkansas·23.6 yrs·$2M($0M–$8M)⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: charting total career snaps; the knock: age.

Bust probability· low confidence22%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #202NWE
53
Jalen CollinsPre-Combine

Jalen Collins

Day 2CB·LSU·6'1", 203 lb·22.1 yrs·$8M($1M–$15M)·404.48⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: charting total career snaps; the knock: HS recruit rating.

Career outlookBust 24%(tails only)
Bust probability· low confidence33%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #42ATLY1 3.9
54
Shaq MasonPre-Combine

Shaq Mason

Day 2C·Georgia Tech·$17M($9M–$25M)⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: charting total career snaps.

Career outlookBust 21%(tails only)
Bust probability6%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #131NWE
55
Tre' JacksonPre-Combine

Tre' Jackson

Day 2G·Florida St.·6'4", 330 lb·$8M($0M–$16M)·405.52⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: charting total career snaps.

Bust probability8%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #111NWE
56
Jarvis HarrisonPre-Combine

Jarvis Harrison

Day 2G·Texas A&M·6'4", 330 lb·$12M($4M–$21M)·405.19⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: charting total career snaps, age.

Bust probability4%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #152NYJ
57
John MillerPre-Combine

John Miller

Day 2G·Louisville·6'2", 303 lb·$7M($0M–$16M)·405.33⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: age.

Career outlookBust 18%(tails only)
Bust probability6%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #81BUF
58
Tre McBridePre-Combine

Tre McBride

Day 2WR·William & Mary·6'0", 210 lb·22.4 yrs·$5M($0M–$11M)·404.41⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: HS recruit rating. Bust risk moderate (39%).

Bust probability39%Moderate risk
Plays like
NFL pick #245TENY1 4.4
59
Ereck FlowersPre-Combine

Ereck Flowers

Day 2OT·Miami (FL)·6'6", 329 lb·$9M($0M–$17M)·405.31⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: HS recruit rating.

Career outlookBust 15%(tails only)
Bust probability· low confidence8%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #9NYG
60
Senquez GolsonPre-Combine

Senquez Golson

Day 2CB·Mississippi·5'9", 176 lb·21.8 yrs·$13M($6M–$20M)·404.46⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: charting total career snaps; the knock: HS recruit rating. Bust risk moderate (40%).

Career outlookBust 25%(tails only)
Bust probability· low confidence40%Moderate risk
Plays like
NFL pick #56PIT
61
Tye SmithPre-Combine

Tye Smith

Day 2CB·Towson·6'0", 195 lb·22.0 yrs·$2M($0M–$9M)·404.60⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: HS recruit rating. Bust risk moderate (43%).

Bust probability· low confidence43%Moderate risk
Plays like
NFL pick #170SEAY1 0.2
62
Duke JohnsonPre-Combine

Duke Johnson

Day 2RB·Miami (FL)·5'9", 207 lb·21.6 yrs·$12M($6M–$18M)·404.54⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: HS recruit rating.

Bust probability· low confidence26%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #77CLEY1 17.7
63
Rory AndersonPre-Combine

Rory Anderson

Day 2TE·South Carolina·6'5", 244 lb·22.6 yrs·$7M($1M–$13M)·404.73⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: college production, charting total career snaps. Bust risk elevated (63%).

Bust probability· low confidence63%Elevated risk
Plays like
NFL pick #254SFO
64
Jay AjayiPre-Combine

Jay Ajayi

Day 2blend#64$2MRB·Boise St.·6'0", 221 lb·21.9 yrs·$4M($0M–$10M)·404.57⚠ barely scouted

What the model likes: age.

Bust probability· low confidence11%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #149MIAY1 10.3