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2017 NFL Draft prospect
Alex Armah
age 22.9
On the live board, bust risk sits at 22% and the realistic range is No. 103 to No. 237.
Limited public-board coverage (0 boards) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Alex Armah at pick #186; he was actually picked #192 by CAR. 1 NFL season in, he's barely gotten on the field (grading 1.6 of 20 per season).
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Medium conviction#186FB·West Georgia
We had him No. 186 on draft night, and the league mostly agreed — CAR took him at No. 192. The seasons since are the scoreboard.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Alex Armah at #186 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and CAR took him at No. 192. Bust risk projects at 22%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk2
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps0
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports