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RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. 2018 board/
  3. Trenton Cannon
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Trenton Cannon
2018 NFL Draft prospect

Trenton Cannon

RB·Virginia St.
age 23.8

On the live board, bust risk sits at 25% and the realistic range is No. 124 to No. 258.

207
→ NYJ's 2018 class
Print sheet
⚠Limited public-board coverage (0 boards) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality

The model graded Trenton Cannon at pick #207; he was actually picked #204 by NYJ. 5 NFL seasons in, he's barely gotten on the field (grading 2.0 of 20 per season), and the market has paid him — a second deal at $0.9M a year. The 4-tier model has him as a likely role. NFL grades have been modest so far (0% recent-3, 3% peak across 5 seasons).

Trenton CannonRBDraftanomics #207
Print
Dossier
OverviewScouting reportWhy this gradeConsensusProduction5Risk3Team fit5Will he be there?Comps0Film & notes

Overview

Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take

Draftanomics Rank
Medium conviction
#207RB·Virginia St.

We had him No. 207 on draft night, and the league mostly agreed — NYJ took him at No. 204. The seasons since are the scoreboard.

Scouting report

The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet

Why this grade

Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English

Consensus

The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it

Production5

Measurables, traits, and college play quality

Risk3

Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem

Team fit5

How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes

Will he be there?

Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks

Comps0

Historical players this prospect resembles

Film & notes

Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports

Draftanomics's take

Draftanomics had Trenton Cannon at #207 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and NYJ took him at No. 204. Bust risk projects at 25%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade.

Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 6, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.

Draftanomics Pick?
#207
Day 3range #124–#258 · volatile
Bust Probability?
25%
1.08× RB / WR / TE class avg (23%)
≈ class avg
Model trust: MODERATE
Actual NFL Pick?
#204
NYJ · Rd 6
Career Outcome · 5 seasons?
9.8
2.0 / season avg
Career outlook

Career outlook

How this is built →
5-year career arc
Elite
0%
Bust
35%
Starter
10%
Role
54%

Read the two ends and skim the middle: the model has a real track record telling stars and busts apart, but “solid starter vs. rotation guy” is close to a coin flip from public data — that's why those two bars are grayed. For his odds of outright busting, the Bust-risk panel next door is the number to trust.

Second contract · signed
$0.9M/yr
1 years, $1M total.
We projected $1.7M/yr on draft night — close to the money.
Bust risk
25%
from a model with a graded track record at this position
Public-board consensus

No public-board coverage yet.

Pin a team in your account to see how this prospect fits your roster + cap.
Scout note
Private to this device — saved to your browser, never sent to a server.
Empty notes are auto-deleted.
Verdict
Aligned
Gap (actual − predicted)
-3

Film

Highlight reels indexed from YouTube. Loads only when you press play.

The grade is held down by age, how many boards rank him top-100, and conference strength.

Age
-0.05
Conference strength
-0.02
Scout consensus
-0.02
HS recruit rating
+0.02

Model read

Model grade
0.35 of 1
Confidence?
14%
Predicted round
6

The grade is the 0-to-1 score the board sorts by — it only means something next to the rest of this class, which is why the rank above it is the number to quote.

Pulling the boards…
Mock-draft consensus
Pulling the mocks…
NFL play quality?
0
/ peak 3
Below-average play
Across 5 NFL seasons.
4-tier outlook?
Role
Model expects a depth / rotational role
Model trust: MODERATE
Elite
0%
Starter
10%
Role
54%
Bust
35%

Outcome shares from the 4-tier model. The Bust share here is a different model than the headline bust probability — for bust risk, use that number.

Career trajectory + forecast

Solid points = actual NFL snap share per season. Dashed extension = forecast for upcoming years.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5
Actual Forecast (comp-based)
Risk dashboard

Elevated risk — watch the flags

Risk score41· WATCH

Everything that could go wrong with Trenton Cannon, gathered in one place — the most serious flags listed first.

  • Public-board coverage0 sources
    No public big board has ranked this prospect yet. The grade rests entirely on stats, measurables, and age — hold it loosely.
  • Age red flag23.8 yrs
    1.3 years older than the typical drafted RB (22.5) — older prospects at the position tend to have already peaked.
  • Predicted-pick range#124–258 · 134-pick spread
    The model's own projections scatter widely for this prospect — the landing spot is genuinely uncertain.
  • Bust probability25%
    Modest bust risk — normal territory for the position.

Case for / case against

Named, concrete signals — every flag cites numbers, comp players, or schedule context.

Reasons to fade
Older prospect
medium
Age 23.8 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
No athletic testing
medium
No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
Consensus skeptic
medium
1 board place him at mean rank #507; model has him #207 — a 300-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Reasons to buy
No opportunity flags raised.
Scheme context
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Teams likely to draft

Based on each team's roster depth at RB / WR / TE, age, and recent capital invested.

NE#1 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters11Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereLittle
ARI#2 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters8Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereHeavy
WAS#3 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters8Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereHeavy
DEN#4 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters12Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereHeavy
JAX#5 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters12Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereHeavy
Scout reports
Paste in any scouting report you trust; Draftanomics pulls out the concrete claims so you can weigh them against the model on the same page.
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