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2018 NFL Draft prospect
Will Richardson
On the live board, bust risk sits at 6% and the realistic range is No. 57 to No. 254.
rank#170$1M
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Will Richardson at pick #170; he was actually picked #129 by JAX. 4 NFL seasons in, he's hung on the fringe of the rotation (grading 5.6 of 20 per season). The 4-tier model leans toward the bust tier as the most likely outcome; elite upside is only 4%. NFL grades have been modest so far (0% recent-3, 0% peak across 4 seasons).
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
High conviction#170OT·North Carolina St.
The league moved faster than our board — JAX took him at No. 129, 41 picks ahead of our No. 170 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Will Richardson at #170 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and JAX took him at No. 129, 41 picks earlier than our grade. The model's case leans on his age curve. Bust risk projects at 6%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade. The room had him #86 pre-draft; our board sat 84 spots lower.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 5, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production4
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk2
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps0
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports