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2018 NFL Draft prospect
Justin Watson
age 22.1
On the live board, bust risk sits at 18% and the realistic range is No. 90 to No. 240.
Limited public-board coverage (0 boards) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Justin Watson at pick #147; he was actually picked #144 by TAM. 8 NFL seasons in, he's hung on the fringe of the rotation (grading 4.3 of 20 per season), and the market has paid him — a second deal at $0.3M a year. The 4-tier model has him as a likely role. NFL grades have been modest so far (0% recent-3, 1% peak across 7 seasons). Model predicted $6M/yr; actual $0M (over by $6M).
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Low conviction#147WR·Pennsylvania
We had him No. 147 on draft night, and the league mostly agreed — TAM took him at No. 144. The seasons since are the scoreboard.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production7
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk2
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps0
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports