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2018 NFL Draft prospect
Nathan Shepherd
age 24.5
On the live board, bust risk sits at 16% and the realistic range is No. 40 to No. 205.
rank#87$1.4M
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Nathan Shepherd at pick #87; he was actually picked #72 by NYJ. 8 NFL seasons in, he's hung on the fringe of the rotation (grading 6.3 of 20 per season), and the market has paid him — a second deal at $1.1M a year. The 4-tier model has him as a likely starter. NFL grades have been modest so far (3% recent-3, 8% peak across 7 seasons). Model predicted $8M/yr; actual $1M (over by $7M).
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Speculative#87DT·Fort Hays St.
We had him No. 87 on draft night, and the league mostly agreed — NYJ took him at No. 72. The seasons since are the scoreboard.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Nathan Shepherd at #87 on draft night — a Day 2 grade — and NYJ took him at No. 72. The model's case leans on his age curve. Bust risk projects at 16%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade. The room had him #95 pre-draft; our board was 8 spots higher.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 3, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production7
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk2
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps0
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports