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2018 NFL Draft prospect
R.J. McIntosh
age 21.9 · 6'4" · 286 lb
On the live board, bust risk sits at 44% and the realistic range is No. 37 to No. 225.
rank#117$1.2M
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded R.J. McIntosh at pick #117; he was actually picked #139 by NYG. 2 NFL seasons in, he's hung on the fringe of the rotation (grading 4.4 of 20 per season), and the market has paid him — a second deal at $0.3M a year. The 4-tier model leans toward the bust tier as the most likely outcome; elite upside is only 4%. NFL grades have been modest so far (0% recent-3, 0% peak across 2 seasons).
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Low conviction#117DT·Miami (FL)
We had him No. 117 on draft night; NYG didn't call his name until No. 139 — a 22-pick gap between our board and the league's. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had R.J. McIntosh at #117 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and NYG took him at No. 139, 22 picks later than our grade. The model's case leans on his recruiting pedigree. Bust risk projects at 44%, elevated against the position baseline. The room had him #168 pre-draft; our board was 51 spots higher.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 4, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production2
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk1
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps0
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports