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RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
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Past class — locked, then graded

2019 NFL Draft

A past class. The model never saw these players when it learned — this board is what Draftanomics would have said on draft night, graded against how the careers actually played out.

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Showing 64 of 254 prospects in this draft class
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64 of 64 prospects shown · ranked by the career-value model

Blue Chip

6 prospects · picks #1–#6

Day-1 starter ceiling. The class's franchise pieces.

1
Zach AllenPre-Combine

Zach Allen

Blue ChipEDGE·Boston Col.·21.7 yrs·$28M($18M–$37M)

Blue-chip EDGE ceiling. What the model likes: boards with him top-100, scout consensus, rank within position+class.

Bust probability6%Low risk
Plays like

What the model likes: Scout consensus — exact weights on hover, full math on the dossier.

NFL pick #65ARIY1 0.9
2
Dalton RisnerPre-Combine

Dalton Risner

Blue ChipOT·Kansas St.·6'5", 312 lb·$12M($3M–$20M)·405.30↑ 25 vs consensus

Blue-chip OT ceiling. What the model likes: boards with him top-100, charting total career snaps, charting pass-block efficiency career avg.

Bust probability· low confidence6%Low risk
Plays like

What the model likes: Age · RAS × production — exact weights on hover, full math on the dossier.

NFL pick #41DENY1 5.4
3
Jonah WilliamsPre-Combine

Jonah Williams

Blue ChipG·Alabama·23.7 yrs·$11M($2M–$19M)

Blue-chip G ceiling. What the model likes: boards with him top-100, scout consensus, boards with him top-50.

Bust probability1%Low risk
Plays like

What the model likes: Scout consensus · HS recruit rating — exact weights on hover, full math on the dossier.

NFL pick #11CIN
4
Erik McCoyPre-Combine

Erik McCoy

Blue ChipC·Texas A&M·$17M($9M–$25M)↑ 36 vs consensus

Blue-chip C ceiling. What the model likes: boards with him top-100, boards with him top-50, charting total career snaps.

Bust probability3%Low risk
Plays like

What the model likes: Age · Scout consensus — exact weights on hover, full math on the dossier.

NFL pick #48NORY1 6.2
5
Jawaan TaylorPre-Combine

Jawaan Taylor

Blue ChipOT·Florida·6'5", 312 lb·$26M($18M–$35M)

Blue-chip OT ceiling. What the model likes: boards with him top-100, scout consensus, athleticism (combine).

Bust probability· low confidence3%Low risk
Plays like

What the model likes: Scout consensus · Athleticism · HS recruit rating — exact weights on hover, full math on the dossier.

NFL pick #35JAXY1 6.0
6
Devin WhitePre-Combine

Devin White

Blue ChipLB·LSU·6'0", 237 lb·21.2 yrs·$8M($0M–$18M)·404.42

Blue-chip LB ceiling. What the model likes: boards with him top-100, scout consensus, rank within position+class.

Bust probability6%Low risk
Plays like

What the model likes: Scout consensus · Age — exact weights on hover, full math on the dossier.

NFL pick #5TAMY1 4.5

1st Round

26 prospects · picks #7–#32

Year-1 starter probability. First-round capital.

7
Quinnen WilliamsPre-Combine

Quinnen Williams

1st RoundDT·Alabama·21.3 yrs·$30M($20M–$39M)

First-round DT profile. What the model likes: boards with him top-100, scout consensus; the knock: charting: average depth of target allowed, career avg.

Bust probability15%Low risk
Plays like

What the model likes: Scout consensus — exact weights on hover, full math on the dossier.

NFL pick #3NYJY1 2.8
8
Brian BurnsPre-Combine

Brian Burns

1st RoundEDGE·Florida St.·6'5", 249 lb·21.0 yrs·$27M($18M–$36M)·404.53

First-round EDGE profile. What the model likes: boards with him top-100, scout consensus, rank within position+class.

Bust probability8%Low risk
Plays like

What the model likes: Scout consensus · Athleticism · HS recruit rating — exact weights on hover, full math on the dossier.

NFL pick #16CARY1 2.7
9
Andre DillardPre-Combine

Andre Dillard

1st RoundOT·Washington St.·6'5", 315 lb·$7M($0M–$15M)·404.96↑ 14 vs consensus

First-round OT profile. What the model likes: boards with him top-100, charting total career snaps, boards with him top-50.

Bust probability· low confidence3%Low risk
Plays like

What the model likes: Age — exact weights on hover, full math on the dossier.

NFL pick #22PHIY1 2.0
10
Ed OliverPre-Combine

Ed Oliver

1st RoundDT·Houston·21.4 yrs·$22M($13M–$31M)

First-round DT profile. What the model likes: boards with him top-100, scout consensus; the knock: charting: average depth of target allowed, career avg.

Bust probability15%Low risk
Plays like

What the model likes: Scout consensus — exact weights on hover, full math on the dossier.

NFL pick #9BUFY1 3.2
11
Josh JacobsPre-Combine

Josh Jacobs

1st RoundRB·Alabama·5'10", 220 lb·21.2 yrs·$20M($14M–$26M)↑ 18 vs consensus

First-round RB profile. What the model likes: boards with him top-100, boards with him top-50, rank within position+class.

Bust probability· low confidence22%Average risk
Plays like

What the model likes: HS recruit rating · Scout consensus — exact weights on hover, full math on the dossier.

NFL pick #24OAKY1 14.3
12
Jeffery SimmonsPre-Combine

Jeffery Simmons

1st RoundDT·Mississippi St.·21.7 yrs·$32M($23M–$41M)

First-round DT profile. What the model likes: boards with him top-100, scout consensus, number of boards ranking him.

Bust probability6%Low risk
Plays like

What the model likes: Scout consensus · HS recruit rating — exact weights on hover, full math on the dossier.

NFL pick #19TENY1 2.2
13
Garrett BradburyPre-Combine

Garrett Bradbury

1st RoundC·North Carolina St.·$11M($3M–$19M)

First-round C profile. What the model likes: boards with him top-100, scout consensus, boards with him top-50.

Bust probability6%Low risk
Plays like

What the model likes: Scout consensus — exact weights on hover, full math on the dossier.

NFL pick #18MINY1 6.2
14
Kyler MurrayPre-Combine

Kyler Murray

1st RoundQB·Oklahoma·5'10", 207 lb·21.7 yrs·—

First-round QB profile. What the model likes: boards with him top-100, scout consensus, boards with him top-50.

Bust probability· low confidence8%Low risk
Plays like

What the model likes: Scout consensus · Schedule-adjusted production — exact weights on hover, full math on the dossier.

NFL pick #1ARIY1 17.4
15
Nick BosaPre-Combine

Nick Bosa

1st RoundEDGE·Ohio St.·21.5 yrs·$35M($26M–$45M)↓ 14 vs consensus

First-round EDGE profile. What the model likes: boards with him top-100, scout consensus, rank within position+class.

Bust probability0%Low risk
Plays like

What the model likes: Scout consensus — exact weights on hover, full math on the dossier.

NFL pick #2SFOY1 5.1
16
Taylor RappPre-Combine

Taylor Rapp

1st RoundS·Washington·6'0", 208 lb·21.3 yrs·$5M($0M–$12M)·VERT35"↑ 27 vs consensus

First-round S profile. What the model likes: boards with him top-100, charting coverage grade career avg, boards with him top-50.

Bust probability· low confidence2%Low risk
Plays like

What the model likes: HS recruit rating · Age — exact weights on hover, full math on the dossier.

NFL pick #61LARY1 4.5
17
Cody FordPre-Combine

Cody Ford

1st RoundOT·Oklahoma·6'4", 329 lb·$5M($0M–$13M)·405.21

First-round OT profile. What the model likes: boards with him top-100, scout consensus, boards with him top-50.

Bust probability· low confidence6%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #38BUFY1 4.4
18
N'Keal HarryPre-Combine

N'Keal Harry

1st RoundWR·Arizona St.·21.4 yrs·$5M($0M–$11M)↑ 14 vs consensus

First-round WR profile. What the model likes: boards with him top-100, boards with him top-50, rank within position+class.

Bust probability9%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #32NWEY1 6.1
19
Christian WilkinsPre-Combine

Christian Wilkins

1st RoundDT·Clemson·23.4 yrs·$25M($16M–$34M)

First-round DT profile. What the model likes: boards with him top-100, scout consensus; the knock: charting: average depth of target allowed, career avg.

Bust probability6%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #13MIAY1 4.0
20
Devin Bush Jr.Pre-Combine

Devin Bush Jr.

1st RoundLB·Michigan·5'11", 234 lb·20.8 yrs·$5M($0M–$14M)·404.43

First-round LB profile. What the model likes: boards with him top-100, scout consensus, number of boards ranking him.

Bust probability0%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #10PITY1 4.9
21
Byron MurphyPre-Combine

Byron Murphy

1st RoundCB·Washington·5'11", 190 lb·21.3 yrs·$20M($13M–$27M)·404.55

First-round CB profile. What the model likes: boards with him top-100, scout consensus, rank within position+class.

Bust probability· low confidence11%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #33ARIY1 6.1
22
Greedy WilliamsPre-Combine

Greedy Williams

1st RoundCB·LSU·6'2", 185 lb·21.4 yrs·$4M($0M–$11M)·404.37

First-round CB profile. What the model likes: boards with him top-100, scout consensus, rank within position+class.

Bust probability· low confidence5%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #46CLEY1 3.8
23
D.K. MetcalfPre-Combine

D.K. Metcalf

1st RoundWR·Mississippi·6'3", 228 lb·21.4 yrs·$30M($24M–$36M)·404.33

First-round WR profile. What the model likes: boards with him top-100, scout consensus, rank within position+class.

Bust probability17%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #64SEAY1 17.2
24
T.J. HockensonPre-Combine

T.J. Hockenson

1st RoundTE·Iowa·6'5", 251 lb·21.8 yrs·$30M($24M–$36M)·404.70↓ 17 vs consensus

First-round TE profile. What the model likes: boards with him top-100, scout consensus, boards with him top-50.

Bust probability· low confidence1%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #8DETY1 10.5
25
Marquise BrownPre-Combine

Marquise Brown

1st RoundWR·Oklahoma·5'9", 166 lb·21.9 yrs·$9M($3M–$15M)

First-round WR profile. What the model likes: boards with him top-100, boards with him top-50, rank within position+class.

Bust probability0%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #25BALY1 14.6
26
Montez SweatPre-Combine

Montez Sweat

1st RoundEDGE·Mississippi St.·22.6 yrs·$31M($21M–$40M)↓ 16 vs consensus

First-round EDGE profile. What the model likes: boards with him top-100, scout consensus, boards with him top-50.

Bust probability0%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #26WASY1 4.0
27
Darnell Savage Jr.Pre-Combine

Darnell Savage Jr.

1st RoundS·Maryland·5'11", 198 lb·21.7 yrs·$13M($7M–$20M)·404.36↑ 17 vs consensus

First-round S profile. What the model likes: boards with him top-100, boards with him top-50; the knock: charting yards per coverage snap career avg.

Bust probability· low confidence0%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #21GNBY1 5.4
28
Rock Ya-SinPre-Combine

Rock Ya-Sin

1st RoundCB·Temple·6'0", 192 lb·22.9 yrs·$5M($0M–$12M)·404.51↑ 21 vs consensus

First-round CB profile. What the model likes: boards with him top-100, boards with him top-50, number of boards ranking him.

Bust probability· low confidence18%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #34INDY1 4.7
29
Nasir AdderleyPre-Combine

Nasir Adderley

1st RoundS·Delaware·6'0", 206 lb·21.9 yrs·$4M($0M–$11M)

First-round S profile. What the model likes: boards with him top-100, rank within position+class, boards with him top-50.

Bust probability· low confidence0%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #60LACY1 0.2
30
Trayvon MullenPre-Combine

Trayvon Mullen

1st RoundCB·Clemson·6'1", 199 lb·21.6 yrs·$6M($0M–$13M)·404.46↑ 39 vs consensus

First-round CB profile. What the model likes: boards with him top-100, charting run defense snap weighted, charting: pass-rush productivity (true pass sets), career avg.

Bust probability· low confidence15%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #40OAKY1 3.8
31
Devin SingletaryPre-Combine

Devin Singletary

1st RoundRB·Florida Atlantic·5'7", 203 lb·21.6 yrs·$6M($0M–$12M)·404.66↑ 54 vs consensus

First-round RB profile. What the model likes: boards with him top-100, charting rush grade, charting: pass-block efficiency (true pass sets), career avg.

Bust probability· low confidence14%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #74BUFY1 14.2
32
Clelin FerrellPre-Combine

Clelin Ferrell

1st RoundEDGE·Clemson·6'4", 264 lb·21.9 yrs·$7M($0M–$17M)↓ 19 vs consensus

First-round EDGE profile. What the model likes: boards with him top-100, scout consensus, boards with him top-50.

Bust probability7%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #4OAKY1 3.6

Day 2

32 prospects · picks #33–#64

Year-1 contributor, year-3 starter timeline. Round 2-3 value.

33
Noah FantPre-Combine

Noah Fant

Day 2TE·Iowa·6'4", 249 lb·21.4 yrs·$14M($8M–$20M)·404.50↓ 17 vs consensus

What the model likes: boards with him top-100, scout consensus, rank within position+class.

Bust probability· low confidence16%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #20DENY1 13.5
34
Dexter LawrencePre-Combine

Dexter Lawrence

Day 2DT·Clemson·21.4 yrs·$26M($17M–$36M)

What the model likes: boards with him top-100, boards with him top-50, charting gap run block grade.

Bust probability6%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #17NYGY1 3.9
35
Julian LovePre-Combine

Julian Love

Day 2CB·Notre Dame·5'11", 195 lb·21.1 yrs·$12M($5M–$19M)·404.54

What the model likes: boards with him top-100, charting coverage grade career avg; the knock: charting yards per coverage snap career avg.

Bust probability· low confidence9%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #108NYGY1 2.3
36
Rashan GaryPre-Combine

Rashan Gary

Day 2LB·Michigan·21.4 yrs·$22M($12M–$31M)

What the model likes: boards with him top-100, number of boards ranking him, boards with him top-50.

Bust probability1%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #12GNBY1 1.5
37
Chris LindstromPre-Combine

Chris Lindstrom

Day 2G·Boston Col.·$25M($17M–$33M)

What the model likes: boards with him top-100, boards with him top-50, charting total career snaps.

Bust probability2%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #14ATLY1 1.8
38
Deandre BakerPre-Combine

Deandre Baker

Day 2CB·Georgia·5'11", 193 lb·21.6 yrs·$4M($0M–$11M)·404.52

What the model likes: boards with him top-100, boards with him top-50, rank within position+class.

Bust probability· low confidence10%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #30NYGY1 5.3
39
Kaleb McGaryPre-Combine

Kaleb McGary

Day 2OT·Washington·6'7", 317 lb·$16M($7M–$24M)·405.05↑ 29 vs consensus

What the model likes: boards with him top-100, charting total career snaps, age.

Bust probability· low confidence9%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #31ATLY1 6.1
40
Justin LaynePre-Combine

Justin Layne

Day 2CB·Michigan St.·6'2", 192 lb·21.3 yrs·$3M($0M–$10M)·404.50↑ 12 vs consensus

What the model likes: boards with him top-100; the knocks: charting catch rate allowed avg, production trajectory.

Bust probability· low confidence11%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #83PITY1 0.1
41
Max ScharpingPre-Combine

Max Scharping

Day 2OT·Northern Illinois·6'6", 327 lb·$3M($0M–$11M)·VERT28"↑ 88 vs consensus

What the model likes: charting total career snaps, charting pass-block efficiency career avg, age.

Bust probability· low confidence3%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #55HOUY1 6.0
42
Dre'Mont JonesPre-Combine

Dre'Mont Jones

Day 2DT·Ohio St.·22.3 yrs·$20M($10M–$29M)

What the model likes: boards with him top-100; the knocks: HS recruit rating, production trajectory.

Bust probability0%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #71DENY1 1.6
43
Mack WilsonPre-Combine

Mack Wilson

Day 2LB·Alabama·6'1", 240 lb·21.2 yrs·$5M($0M–$14M)·VERT32"↑ 14 vs consensus

What the model likes: boards with him top-100, college production; the knock: charting total career snaps.

Bust probability6%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #155CLEY1 5.2
44
Drew LockPre-Combine

Drew Lock

Day 2QB·Missouri·6'4", 228 lb·22.4 yrs·—·404.69

What the model likes: boards with him top-100, charting total career snaps, number of boards ranking him.

Bust probability· low confidence12%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #42DENY1 7.1
45
Greg LittlePre-Combine

Greg Little

Day 2OT·Mississippi·6'5", 310 lb·$4M($0M–$12M)·405.33

What the model likes: boards with him top-100, HS recruit rating, boards with him top-50.

Bust probability· low confidence5%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #37CARY1 1.4
46
Chase WinovichPre-Combine

Chase Winovich

Day 2EDGE·Michigan·6'3", 256 lb·24.0 yrs·$4M($0M–$13M)·404.59

What the model likes: boards with him top-100, boards with him top-50; the knock: age.

Bust probability1%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #77NWEY1 1.7
47
Rodney AndersonPre-Combine

Rodney Anderson

Day 2RB·Oklahoma·6'0", 224 lb·22.6 yrs·$6M($0M–$12M)↑ 35 vs consensus

What the model likes: athleticism (combine), athlete×producer interaction; the knock: charting total career snaps. Bust risk elevated (69%).

Bust probability· low confidence69%Elevated risk
Plays like
NFL pick #211CIN
48
A.J. BrownPre-Combine

A.J. Brown

Day 2WR·Mississippi·6'0", 226 lb·21.8 yrs·$36M($30M–$42M)·404.49↓ 14 vs consensus

What the model likes: boards with him top-100, boards with him top-50, HS recruit rating.

Bust probability1%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #51TENY1 16.4
49
Ben PowersPre-Combine

Ben Powers

Day 2G·Oklahoma·$16M($8M–$25M)⚠ barely scouted↑ 64 vs consensus

What the model likes: age, HS recruit rating; the knock: boards with him top-100.

Bust probability16%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #123BALY1 0.3
50
Yodny CajustePre-Combine

Yodny Cajuste

Day 2OT·West Virginia·6'5", 312 lb·$4M($0M–$13M)↑ 13 vs consensus

What the model likes: boards with him top-100, athleticism (combine), age.

Bust probability· low confidence1%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #101NWE
51
Michael DeiterPre-Combine

Michael Deiter

Day 2G·Wisconsin·$2M($0M–$11M)↑ 48 vs consensus

What the model likes: boards with him top-100, charting total career snaps, charting gap run block grade.

Bust probability3%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #78MIAY1 5.5
52
Deebo SamuelPre-Combine

Deebo Samuel

Day 2WR·South Carolina·5'11", 214 lb·23.3 yrs·$33M($27M–$39M)·404.48↓ 13 vs consensus

What the model likes: boards with him top-100, boards with him top-50; the knock: age.

Bust probability4%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #36SFOY1 15.7
53
Elgton JenkinsPre-Combine

Elgton Jenkins

Day 2C·Mississippi St.·$25M($16M–$33M)

What the model likes: boards with him top-100, charting total career snaps, age.

Bust probability6%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #44GNBY1 6.0
54
C.J. Gardner-JohnsonPre-Combine

C.J. Gardner-Johnson

Day 2S·Florida·21.3 yrs·$13M($7M–$20M)↓ 19 vs consensus

What the model likes: boards with him top-100, college production; the knock: workload share.

Bust probability· low confidence11%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #105NORY1 3.3
55
Darrell HendersonPre-Combine

Darrell Henderson

Day 2RB·Memphis·5'8", 208 lb·21.7 yrs·$3M($0M–$9M)·404.49↑ 15 vs consensus

What the model likes: boards with him top-100, charting yards after contact per att; the knock: HS recruit rating.

Bust probability· low confidence12%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #70LARY1 3.6
56
Juan ThornhillPre-Combine

Juan Thornhill

Day 2S·Virginia·6'0", 205 lb·23.5 yrs·$11M($5M–$18M)·404.42

What the model likes: boards with him top-100, athleticism (combine); the knock: age.

Bust probability· low confidence7%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #63KANY1 5.5
57
Hakeem ButlerPre-Combine

Hakeem Butler

Day 2WR·Iowa St.·6'5", 227 lb·22.9 yrs·$2M($0M–$8M)·404.48↓ 20 vs consensus

What the model likes: boards with him top-100, boards with him top-50; the knock: production trajectory.

Bust probability1%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #103ARI
58
Dwayne HaskinsPre-Combine

Dwayne Haskins

Day 2QB·Ohio St.·6'3", 231 lb·22.0 yrs·—·405.04↓ 34 vs consensus

What the model likes: boards with him top-100, rank within position+class, boards with him top-50.

Bust probability· low confidence32%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #15WASY1 7.0
59
Kahale WarringPre-Combine

Kahale Warring

Day 2TE·San Diego St.·6'5", 252 lb·22.1 yrs·$2M($0M–$8M)·404.67↑ 77 vs consensus

What the model likes: boards with him top-100, college production, age. Bust risk elevated (72%).

Bust probability· low confidence72%Elevated risk
Plays like
NFL pick #86HOU
60
Khalen SaundersPre-Combine

Khalen Saunders

Day 2DT·Western Illinois·22.7 yrs·$7M($0M–$17M)↑ 35 vs consensus

What the model likes: boards with him top-100, HS recruit rating; the knock: workload share.

Bust probability32%Average risk
Plays like
NFL pick #84KANY1 1.9
61
Tytus HowardPre-Combine

Tytus Howard

Day 2OT·Alabama St.·$23M($15M–$31M)↑ 56 vs consensus

What the model likes: boards with him top-100, age, HS recruit rating.

Bust probability· low confidence4%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #23HOUY1 2.8
62
Kelvin HarmonPre-Combine

Kelvin Harmon

Day 2WR·North Carolina St.·22.4 yrs·$3M($0M–$9M)↓ 17 vs consensus

What the model likes: boards with him top-100, boards with him top-50, HS recruit rating.

Bust probability4%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #206WASY1 9.0
63
Sean Murphy-BuntingPre-Combine

Sean Murphy-Bunting

Day 2CB·Central Michigan·21.9 yrs·$9M($3M–$16M)↑ 29 vs consensus

What the model likes: boards with him top-100, charting: pass-rush productivity (true pass sets), career avg, HS recruit rating.

Bust probability· low confidence20%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #39TAMY1 3.8
64
David MontgomeryPre-Combine

David Montgomery

Day 2RB·Iowa St.·5'10", 222 lb·21.9 yrs·$10M($4M–$16M)·404.63

What the model likes: boards with him top-100, charting rush grade; the knock: power-5 production share.

Bust probability· low confidence15%Low risk
Plays like
NFL pick #73CHIY1 14.8