Refreshed just now
rank#127$1.1M
Big Ten→ MIN's 2021 class
Limited public-board coverage (1 board) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Ihmir Smith-Marsette at pick #127; he was actually picked #157 by MIN. 4 NFL seasons in, he's hung on the fringe of the rotation (grading 5.0 of 20 per season), and the market has paid him — a second deal at $0.2M a year. The 4-tier model has him as a likely role. NFL grades have been modest so far (3% recent-3, 8% peak across 4 seasons).
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Medium conviction#127WR·Iowa
We had him No. 127 on draft night; MIN didn't call his name until No. 157 — a 30-pick gap between our board and the league's. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Ihmir Smith-Marsette at #127 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and MIN took him at No. 157, 30 picks later than our grade. Bust risk projects at 12%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade. The room had him #114 pre-draft; our board sat 13 spots lower.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production4
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports