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2021 NFL Draft prospect
Jordan Smith
age 23.1 · 6'5" · 264 lb
On the live board, bust risk sits at 30% and the realistic range is No. 65 to No. 221.
rank#145$1.1MCompUchenna Nwosu
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Jordan Smith at pick #145; he was actually picked #121 by JAX. 1 NFL season in, he's barely gotten on the field (grading 0.2 of 20 per season), and the market has paid him — a second deal at $0.9M a year. The 4-tier model leans toward the bust tier as the most likely outcome; elite upside is only 3%. NFL grades have been modest so far (0% recent-3, 1% peak across 1 seasons).
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Low convictionprojected rangeRounds 3-6half of comparable prospects went picks 91-192OLB·Ala-Birmingham
The league moved faster than our board — JAX took him at No. 121, 24 picks ahead of our No. 145 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production1
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk3
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps5
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports