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2022 NFL Draft prospect
Christian Holmes
age 24.4
On the live board, bust risk sits at 53% and the realistic range is No. 146 to No. 254.
Big 12→ WAS's 2022 class
Limited public-board coverage (0 boards) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Christian Holmes at pick #261; he was actually picked #240 by WAS. 2 NFL seasons in, he's barely gotten on the field (grading 1.0 of 20 per season), and the market has paid him — a second deal at $1.0M a year. The 4-tier model leans toward the bust tier as the most likely outcome; elite upside is only 5%. NFL grades have been modest so far (0% recent-3, 0% peak across 2 seasons).
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Medium conviction#261CB·Oklahoma St.
The league moved faster than our board — WAS took him at No. 240, 21 picks ahead of our No. 261 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production2
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk3
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps5
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports