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2022 NFL Draft prospect
Brock Purdy
age 22.3 · 6'1" · 212 lb
On the live board, bust risk sits at 31% and the realistic range is No. 106 to No. 240.
Big 12→ SFO's 2022 class
Limited public-board coverage (0 boards) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Brock Purdy at pick #189; he was actually picked #262 by SFO. 4 NFL seasons in, he's carved out a genuine role (grading 7.7 of 20 per season), and the market has paid him — a second deal at $53.0M a year. So far, that's a point for our board. The 4-tier model sees a strong shot at elite: 71% probability of Pro-Bowl-level career. His NFL play has graded as a solid starter (18% recent-3, 41% peak across 3 seasons). The AAV predictor called it: model said $52M/yr, actual was $53M.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Medium conviction#189QB·Iowa St.
We had him No. 189 on draft night; SFO didn't call his name until No. 262 — a 73-pick gap between our board and the league's. His career is settling that argument now.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production3
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk4
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps5
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports