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2022 NFL Draft prospect
Calvin Austin III
age 23.1 · 5'8" · 170 lb
On the live board, bust risk sits at 21% and the realistic range is No. 62 to No. 218.
rank#115$1.2MCompBrandon Aiyuk
American Athletic→ PIT's 2022 class
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Calvin Austin III at pick #115; he was actually picked #138 by PIT. 3 NFL seasons in, he's hung on the fringe of the rotation (grading 6.5 of 20 per season), and the market has paid him — a second deal at $1.5M a year. The 4-tier model has him as a likely role. NFL grades have been modest so far (1% recent-3, 3% peak across 2 seasons). Model predicted $5M/yr; actual $2M (over by $4M).
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Low conviction#115WR·Memphis
We had him No. 115 on draft night; PIT didn't call his name until No. 138 — a 23-pick gap between our board and the league's. His career is settling that argument now.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production2
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk5
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps5
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports