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2022 NFL Draft prospect
Kyren Williams
age 21.7 · 5'9" · 194 lb
On the live board, bust risk sits at 74% and the realistic range is No. 63 to No. 251.
rank#143$1.1MCompJames Conner
FBS Independents→ LAR's 2022 class
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Kyren Williams at pick #143; he was actually picked #164 by LAR. 4 NFL seasons in, he's carved out a genuine role (grading 7.1 of 20 per season), and the market has paid him — a second deal at $11.0M a year. So far, that's a point for our board. The 4-tier model gives him a 41% chance at an elite career. His NFL play has graded as a solid starter (23% recent-3, 64% peak across 3 seasons). The AAV predictor called it: model said $13M/yr, actual was $11M.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Medium conviction#143RB·Notre Dame
We had him No. 143 on draft night; LAR didn't call his name until No. 164 — a 21-pick gap between our board and the league's. His career is settling that argument now.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production3
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk5
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps5
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports