Refreshed just now
Big Ten→ LAR's 2022 class
Limited public-board coverage (0 boards) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded AJ Arcuri at pick #165; he was actually picked #261 by LAR. 2 NFL seasons in, he's hung on the fringe of the rotation (grading 4.7 of 20 per season), and the market has paid him — a second deal at $0.2M a year. The 4-tier model leans toward the bust tier as the most likely outcome; elite upside is only 2%. NFL grades have been modest so far (0% recent-3, 2% peak across 2 seasons).
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
High conviction#165OT·Michigan St.
We had him No. 165 on draft night; LAR didn't call his name until No. 261 — a 96-pick gap between our board and the league's. His career is settling that argument now.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production2
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports