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blend#64$2M
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Jammie Robinson at pick #64; he was actually picked #145 by CAR. 3 NFL seasons in, he's barely gotten on the field (grading -0.6 of 20 per season), and the market has paid him — a second deal at $1.1M a year. So far, the league's caution is winning the argument. The 4-tier model leans toward the bust tier as the most likely outcome; elite upside is only 9%. NFL grades have been modest so far (0% recent-3, 0% peak across 2 seasons).
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Speculative#64CB·Florida St.
We had him No. 64 on draft night; CAR didn't call his name until No. 145 — a 81-pick gap between our board and the league's. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Jammie Robinson at #64 on draft night — a Day 2 grade — and CAR took him at No. 145, 81 picks later than our grade. The model's case leans on broad top-100 board coverage. Bust risk projects at 33%, near the position baseline. The room had him #128 pre-draft; our board was 64 spots higher.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 2, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production2
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports