On the live board, bust risk sits at 25% and the realistic range is No. 75 to No. 250.
The model graded Michael Pratt at pick #143; he was actually picked #245 by GNB. The 4-tier model has him as a likely starter. Model predicted $5M/yr; actual $1M (over by $4M).
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
We had him No. 143 on draft night; GNB didn't call his name until No. 245 — a 102-pick gap between our board and the league's. His career is settling that argument now.
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Historical players this prospect resembles
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports
Draftanomics had Michael Pratt at #143 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and GNB took him at No. 245, 102 picks later than our grade. The model's case leans on broad top-100 board coverage. Bust risk projects at 25%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade. The room had him #119 pre-draft; our board sat 24 spots lower.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 5, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Read the two ends and skim the middle: the model has a real track record telling stars and busts apart, but “solid starter vs. rotation guy” is close to a coin flip from public data — that's why those two bars are grayed. For his odds of outright busting, the Bust-risk panel next door is the number to trust.
The bracketed ranges show how far each number could reasonably move — they come from how 23–57 similar players in past drafts actually turned out.
5 public boards track this prospect. Per-board breakdown loads with the live board.
Highlight reels indexed from YouTube. Loads only when you press play.
Working in his favor: his charted total career snaps. Working against him: how many boards rank him top-100 and his charted deep completion pct.
The grade is the 0-to-1 score the board sorts by — it only means something next to the rest of this class, which is why the rank above it is the number to quote.
Outcome shares from the 4-tier model. The Bust share here is a different model than the headline bust probability — for bust risk, use that number.
Solid points = actual NFL snap share per season. Dashed extension = forecast for upcoming years.
Everything that could go wrong with Michael Pratt, gathered in one place — the most serious flags listed first.
Named, concrete signals — every flag cites numbers, comp players, or schedule context.
Based on each team's roster depth at QB, age, and recent capital invested.
Closest historical matches among prior QB prospects who were drafted, by overall statistical profile. A smaller distance means a closer match.
| Player | Pos | Year | Pick | Snap trajectory | Career arc | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | QB | 2020 | #26 | ↑10 pts | Starter | 1.30 |
| Sam Howell | QB | 2022 | #144 | →2 pts | Contributor | 1.77 |
| Malik Willis | QB | 2022 | #86 | ↓4 pts | Bust | 2.13 |
| Kellen Mond | QB | 2021 | #66 | →0 pts | Bust | 2.47 |
| Ian Book | QB | 2021 | #133 | ↓4 pts | Bust | 2.48 |